Malaga vs Sociedad Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
La Rosaleda
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.17
Draw
3.61
Away Win
2.30
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 5
Match Events ?
Malaga
Sociedad
3'
⚽ Takefusa Kubo (Hector Fort)
26'
⚽ Orri Steinn Óskarsson
37'
🟨 Jon Martin
Adrian Nino (Pablo Martínez Andrés) ⚽
54'
59'
⚽ Mikel Oyarzabal (Takefusa Kubo)
62'
🟨 Mamadou Sarr
Pablo Martínez Andrés ⚽
66'
67'
⚽ Mikel Oyarzabal (Jon Martin)
73'
⚽ Gonçalo Guedes
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
17
Total Shots
21
6
Shots on Goal
9
4
Corner Kicks
5
4
Fouls
9
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Malaga (4-4-2)
Alfonso Herrero
Rafita
Fernando Calero
Ángel Recio
José Salinas
David Larrubia
Izan Merino
Carlos Dotor
Pablo Martínez
Adrián Niño Heredia
Chupe
Sociedad (4-4-2)
Álex Remiro
Héctor Fort
Jon Martín
M. Sarr
Aihen Muñoz
T. Kubo
Jon Gorrotxategi
Carlos Soler
Barrenetxea
Mikel Oyarzabal
O. Óskarsson
Player Ratings ?
Malaga
Pablo MartínezM8.5
Adrián Niño HerediaF7.7
Joaquín MuñozF6.8
Sociedad
Mikel OyarzabalF9.2
T. KuboM8.4
Gonçalo GuedesF7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Malaga edge defence and head-to-head, Sociedad edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sociedad stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sociedad stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Malaga stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Malaga stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sociedad have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Malaga remain winless at home with four draws in their recent five matches. Malaga have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same period. The hosts face five unavailable players, whereas Sociedad have two teammates unable to play for the upcoming fixture. Sociedad rate stronger on form and attack, while Malaga rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. Over the 9-day comparison window, Malaga's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Sociedad's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Malaga
Malaga's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Malaga win as more likely than it did 9 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Sociedad remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Malaga win
Latest market chance 30.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.0% → 30.8%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.1% → 26.8%
−0.3 pts
Sociedad win
Latest market chance 42.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.0% → 42.4%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Malaga
Draw
Sociedad
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MalagaSociedad
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
6th
8
Games Played
8
0.50
Points/Game
1.63
0.50
Goals/Game
1.50
1.62
Conceded/Game
1.88
11.2
Shots/Game
14.6
3.6
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Malaga at home (8 matches) vs Sociedad away (6 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
2.17
1.88
Conceded/Game
2.17
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Malaga
Home form
D
D
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sociedad
Away form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Malaga Wins
2
Draws
2
Sociedad Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Malaga2 – 0Sociedad
Sociedad0 – 2Malaga
Sociedad2 – 2Malaga
Malaga0 – 2Sociedad
Sociedad1 – 1Malaga
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Malagavs
Sociedad
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.50
Goals conceded / game
2.00
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.0%→Latest 56.7%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.3%→Latest 59.8%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Malaga's 10 matches and 2 of Sociedad's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?