Malaga vs Santander Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
La Rosaleda
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.46
Draw
3.55
Away Win
2.92
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Malaga
Santander
Carlos Dotor (Adrián Niño) ⚽
28'
31'
🟨 Julen Agirrezabala
Adam Aznou 🟨
38'
Einar Galilea 🟨
45+1'
50'
⚽ Iker Luque (Pablo Ramon Parra)
60'
⚽ Yassir Zabiri
Adam Aznou 🟥
64'
Adrián Niño 🟨
76'
Carlos Ruiz Rubio 🟨
80'
Carlos Dotor 🟨
90'
90+1'
🟨 Giorgi Guliashvili
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
16
Total Shots
21
8
Shots on Goal
7
6
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
5
4
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Malaga (5-3-2)
Alfonso Herrero
Rafita
Fernando Calero
Álex Pastor
Einar Galilea
Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
Carlos Dotor
Ramón Enríquez
Dani Lorenzo
Adrián Niño Heredia
Chupe
Santander (4-2-3-1)
Julen Agirrezabala
Pablo Ramón
Pedro Felipe
J. Belocian
Jorge Salinas
Iván Martín
M. Prati
Iker Luque
Sergio Canales
Iñigo Vicente
M. Zabiri
Player Ratings ?
Malaga
Carlos DotorM7.5
Ramón EnríquezM6.7
Alfonso HerreroG6.7
Santander
Julen AgirrezabalaG8.6
M. ZabiriF8.2
Iker LuqueM7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Malaga edge defence, Santander edge recent form and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Santander stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Malaga stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Santander stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santander arrive with a worrying away record of five straight defeats in their last five outings, while Malaga look steadier at home having secured three draws from their last five matches. At home, Malaga have found the net in four of their last five matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same period. Santander rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Malaga rate stronger on defence, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 24 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Malaga's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while Santander's implied win probability has risen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Malaga
Malaga's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Malaga win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Malaga win
Latest market chance 39.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
41.2% → 39.6%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.1% → 27.1%
+1.0 pts
Santander win
Latest market chance 33.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.7% → 33.3%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Malaga
Draw
Santander
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MalagaSantander
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
16th
11
Games Played
11
0.45
Points/Game
1.00
0.73
Goals/Game
1.36
1.91
Conceded/Game
2.64
11.2
Shots/Game
12.9
3.6
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Malaga at home (8 matches) vs Santander away (7 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
0.86
1.00
Goals/Game
1.14
1.88
Conceded/Game
2.86
0%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Malaga
Home form
D
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Santander
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Malaga Wins
0
Draws
2
Santander Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Malaga1 – 1Santander
Santander3 – 0Malaga
Santander2 – 1Malaga
Malaga0 – 0Santander
Malaga0 – 1Santander
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Malagavs
Santander
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
2.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.9%→Latest 56.8%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.5%→Latest 60.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?