Espanol vs Ath Madrid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
RCDE Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.97
Draw
4.04
Away Win
1.70
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Espanol
Ath Madrid
22'
🟨 Morten Hjulmand
43'
🟨 Lee Kang-In
66'
🟨 Cristian Romero
68'
🟨 Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
79'
🟨 Rodrigo Mendoza
Roger Hinojo 🟨
81'
Unai Núñez 🟨
87'
89'
⚽ Alejandro Baena Rodríguez (Julián Álvarez)
Match Statistics ?
29%
Ball Possession
71%
10
Total Shots
19
2
Shots on Goal
6
4
Corner Kicks
12
10
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Espanol (5-4-1)
Ángel Fortuño
O. El Hilali
V. Drkušić
C. Riedel
L. Cabrera
Roger Hinojo
Javier Hernandez
Edu Expósito
Pol Lozano
Bryan Zaragoza
Roberto Fernández
Ath Madrid (4-3-1-2)
J. Oblak
Marc Pubill
C. Romero
D. Hancko
Dani MartÃnez
G. Simeone
Pablo Barrios
M. Hjulmand
Lee Kang-In
J. David
A. Lookman
Player Ratings ?
Espanol
Ángel FortuñoG7.1
C. RiedelD6.9
V. DrkušićD6.9
Ath Madrid
Álex BaenaM8.2
D. HanckoD7.8
Dani MartÃnezD7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ath Madrid edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Madrid slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ath Madrid arrive with an impressive away record of four wins from their last five outings, while Espanol have struggled at home with just a solitary victory in that same span. The hosts have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have managed only a single clean sheet during that period. Both squads face similar selection headaches, with two players unavailable for each side ahead of the fixture. Ath Madrid rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Ath Madrid won the most recent meeting 4-2 on 21 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Espanol's 1, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Espanol's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points, while Ath Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ath Madrid win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Espanol win
Latest market chance 20.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.8% → 20.2%
−2.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.6% → 24.7%
−0.9 pts
Ath Madrid win
Latest market chance 55.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
51.6% → 55.1%
+3.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Espanol
Draw
Ath Madrid
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EspanolAth Madrid
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
2nd
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
2.38
1.38
Goals/Game
2.25
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.8
Shots/Game
16.7
3.4
Shots on Target
5.9
Home vs Away Context
Espanol at home (8 matches) vs Ath Madrid away (9 matches)
0.75
Points/Game
2.67
0.75
Goals/Game
1.78
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.67
12%
Win Rate
89%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Espanol
Home form
D
W
L
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ath Madrid
Away form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Espanol Wins
1
Draws
3
Ath Madrid Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.4
Ath Madrid4 – 2Espanol
Espanol2 – 1Ath Madrid
Espanol1 – 1Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid0 – 0Espanol
Espanol3 – 3Ath Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Espanolvs
Ath Madrid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 52.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 53.7%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Espanol's 10 matches and 1 of Ath Madrid's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?