Elche vs Celta Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.02
Draw
3.30
Away Win
2.51
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Elche
Celta
37'
🟨 Yoel Lago
59'
🟨 Javier Rueda García
81'
🟨 Aleix Febas
Marc Aguado 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
13
Total Shots
7
2
Shots on Goal
0
5
Corner Kicks
2
19
Fouls
21
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Elche (5-3-2)
M. Dituro
Rubén Sánchez
J. Morcillo
Víctor Chust
R. Revivo
Germán Valera
Gonzalo Villar
Marc Aguado
T. Lemar
Tete Morente
Fer Niño
Celta (3-4-3)
I. Radu
Álvaro Núñez
Yoel Lago
Marcos Alonso
Javi Rueda
I. Moriba
Aleix Febas
Javi Galán
Ferran Jutglà
Pablo Durán
Hugo Álvarez
Player Ratings ?
Elche
Víctor ChustD7.5
Rubén SánchezD7.2
T. LemarM7.1
Celta
I. RaduG7.1
Álvaro NúñezD7.0
Marcos AlonsoD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Elche edge attack, Celta edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Elche stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Celta have secured just one victory from their last five away matches, while Elche have suffered three defeats in that same span at home. Elche have found the net in four of their last five outings at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet in only one of those five fixtures. There is one player unavailable for Elche, whereas Celta face four absences ahead of this La Liga encounter. Celta rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Elche rate stronger on attack. Celta won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 3 May 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Elche's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 14-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Elche losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Elche win
Latest market chance 32.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.6% → 32.1%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.6% → 29.6%
±0.0 pts
Celta win
Latest market chance 38.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.7% → 38.2%
+0.5 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
15 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Sep 27Oct 1Oct 4Oct 7Oct 11
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Elche
Draw
Celta
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Elche
Celta
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
15th
7
Games Played
7
0.71
Points/Game
1.00
1.57
Goals/Game
1.14
2.43
Conceded/Game
0.86
12.0
Shots/Game
10.9
4.2
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Elche at home (6 matches) vs Celta away (6 matches)
0.17
Points/Game
0.67
0.67
Goals/Game
0.17
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.17
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Elche
Home form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Celta
Away form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Elche Wins
1
Draws
0
Celta Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.0
2026-05-032025-2026
Celta3 – 1Elche
2025-09-282025-2026
Elche2 – 1Celta
2023-04-262022-2023
Celta1 – 0Elche
2023-01-062022-2023
Elche0 – 1Celta
2022-05-152021-2022
Celta1 – 0Elche
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Elche
vs
Celta
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
71.8%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
47.9%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
27.9%
BTTSBoth teams score
54.1%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.1%→Latest 47.6%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 18Sep 24Sep 30Oct 5Oct 11
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 23 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.3%→Latest 53.7%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 18Sep 24Sep 30Oct 5Oct 11
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 23 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Elche's 10 matches and 3 of Celta's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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