Celta vs Alaves Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Municipal de Balaídos
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.33
Draw
3.16
Away Win
3.55
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Celta
Alaves
Sebastián Cáceres 🟨
15'
45'
🟨 Toni Martínez
Ferran Jutglà (Javier Rodríguez Galiano) ⚽
53'
Javier Rodríguez Galiano (Iago Aspas) ⚽
71'
87'
⚽ Hugo Novoa Ramos (Mariano Díaz)
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
6
Total Shots
20
3
Shots on Goal
9
0
Corner Kicks
4
14
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
8
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Celta (3-4-3)
I. Radu
Javi Rodríguez
Yoel Lago
S. Cáceres
Sergio Carreira
H. Burcio
I. Moriba
Hugo Álvarez
C. Driouech
Ferran Jutglà
W. Swedberg
Alaves (5-3-2)
Sivera
N. Tenaglia
Jonny
V. Koski
N. Valentini
A. Rebbach
Pablo Ibáñez
Antonio Blanco
Carles Aleñá
Toni Martínez
L. Boyé
Player Ratings ?
Celta
Javi RodríguezD8.2
I. RaduG8.2
Ferran JutglàF7.7
Alaves
Hugo NovoaF7.5
Antonio BlancoM7.2
A. RebbachD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Celta edge defence, recent form, attack and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Alaves have recorded just one victory from their last five away outings, while Celta sit on two wins in that same span at home. Celta have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept a clean sheet only twice during that period. The hosts carry five absentees into this fixture, whereas Alaves can field a squad with just one player missing. Celta rate stronger on defence, while form, attack and head-to-head are closely matched. Alaves won the most recent meeting 4-3 on 22 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Celta's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Celta's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points, while Alaves's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Celta
Celta's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Celta win as less likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Celta win
Latest market chance 42.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
47.5% → 42.1%
−5.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.6% → 29.8%
+2.2 pts
Alaves win
Latest market chance 28.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
25.0% → 28.1%
+3.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Celta
Draw
Alaves
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CeltaAlaves
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
1.38
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
10.9
Shots/Game
12.4
3.4
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Celta at home (7 matches) vs Alaves away (8 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
0.50
1.29
Goals/Game
0.62
0.86
Conceded/Game
2.12
29%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Celta
Home form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Alaves
Away form
D
W
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Celta Wins
2
Draws
1
Alaves Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Celta3 – 4Alaves
Alaves0 – 1Celta
Alaves1 – 1Celta
Celta2 – 1Alaves
Alaves3 – 0Celta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Celtavs
Alaves
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.1%→Latest 39.3%−5.8 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 47.1%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Celta's 10 matches and 1 of Alaves's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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