Ath Madrid vs La Coruna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.29
Draw
5.91
Away Win
10.13
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Ath Madrid
La Coruna
Marc Pubill 🟨
26'
Julián Álvarez (Alejandro Grimaldo) ⚽
48'
75'
🟨 Yeremay Hernández
79'
🟨 Giacomo Quagliata
Alexander Sørloth 🟨
85'
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 🟨
86'
Giuliano Simeone Baldini 🟨
87'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
20
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
4
11
Fouls
6
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Ath Madrid (4-3-3)
J. Oblak
Marcos Llorente
Marc Pubill
D. Hancko
Álex Grimaldo
Pablo Barrios
M. Hjulmand
Álex Baena
Lee Kang-In
J. Álvarez
A. Lookman
La Coruna (5-3-2)
Leo Román
David Mella
Adrià Alti
J. Giménez
Miguel Loureiro
G. Quagliata
Mario Soriano
L. Amatucci
Diego Villares
B. Nsongo
Peke
Player Ratings ?
Ath Madrid
J. ÁlvarezF8.2
Álex GrimaldoD8.0
J. OblakG7.8
La Coruna
J. GiménezD7.2
Adrià AltiD7.2
Mario SorianoM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Ath Madrid an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ath Madrid have enjoyed a strong home run with four wins and no defeats in their last five outings, while La Coruna have struggled away from home with just one victory and two draws in the same sample. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that period. Three players are unavailable for Ath Madrid, whereas La Coruna face a much larger squad absence with five players out for selection. Ath Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. Over the 12-day comparison window, Ath Madrid's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points, while La Coruna's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Ath Madrid.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
50%
La Coruna yellow cards after 75'
13
Ath Madrid points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ath Madrid win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ath Madrid win
Latest market chance 74.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
75.8% → 74.3%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
16.1% → 16.2%
+0.1 pts
La Coruna win
Latest market chance 9.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
8.1% → 9.5%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ath Madrid
Draw
La Coruna
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ath MadridLa Coruna
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
9th
9
Games Played
9
2.44
Points/Game
1.22
2.11
Goals/Game
1.44
0.89
Conceded/Game
1.33
16.7
Shots/Game
11.9
5.9
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Ath Madrid at home (7 matches) vs La Coruna away (8 matches)
2.29
Points/Game
0.88
1.86
Goals/Game
0.88
0.71
Conceded/Game
1.12
71%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ath Madrid
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
La Coruna
Away form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ath Madrid Wins
4
Draws
1
La Coruna Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.6
Ath Madrid1 – 0La Coruna
La Coruna0 – 1Ath Madrid
La Coruna1 – 1Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid1 – 0La Coruna
Ath Madrid3 – 0La Coruna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ath Madridvs
La Coruna
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.30
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.8%→Latest 61.1%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 45.3%→Latest 46.7%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?