Alaves vs Malaga Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.67
Draw
3.83
Away Win
5.65
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Alaves
Malaga
Lucas Boyé 🟨
39'
44'
⚽ Adrian Nino (Ramón Enríquez)
Nahuel Tenaglia 🟨
67'
84'
🟨 Carlos Dotor
Aitor Mañas ⚽
89'
90+2'
🟨 Juan Francisco Funes Arjona
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
18
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
2
14
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Alaves (5-3-2)
Sivera
Angel Pérez
N. Tenaglia
V. Koski
N. Valentini
A. Rebbach
Pablo Ibáñez
Antonio Blanco
Carles Aleñá
L. Boyé
M. Díaz
Malaga (4-1-4-1)
Alfonso Herrero
Puga
Ángel Recio
Einar Galilea
Rafita
Ramón Enríquez
David Larrubia
Carlos Dotor
Dani Lorenzo
Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
Adrián Niño Heredia
Player Ratings ?
Alaves
Aitor MañasF8.2
Toni MartínezF7.4
Angel PérezD7.2
Malaga
Adrián Niño HerediaF8.1
Ramón EnríquezM7.3
Einar GalileaD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Alaves
Alaves rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Alaves an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Alaves stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Alaves arrive at home with two wins from their last five outings, while Malaga have struggled away with just a single draw in that same span. The hosts have scored in four of their last five home matches but have managed only one clean sheet in that period. There is one player out for Alaves, whereas Malaga face more significant concerns with two players unavailable and three others listed as doubtful. Alaves rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Alaves won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 20 May 2023, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Malaga's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Alaves's implied win probability has risen by 4.8 percentage points, while Malaga's implied win probability has fallen by 4.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Alaves.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Malaga points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Alaves
Alaves's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Alaves win as more likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alaves win
Latest market chance 56.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
52.0% → 56.8%
+4.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.6% → 25.8%
−0.8 pts
Malaga win
Latest market chance 17.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
21.4% → 17.4%
−4.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Alaves
Draw
Malaga
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlavesMalaga
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
20th
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
0.44
1.44
Goals/Game
0.67
1.11
Conceded/Game
2.00
12.4
Shots/Game
11.2
4.3
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Alaves at home (8 matches) vs Malaga away (8 matches)
1.38
Points/Game
0.38
1.62
Goals/Game
0.62
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.75
38%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Alaves
Home form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Malaga
Away form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alaves Wins
4
Draws
0
Malaga Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Alaves2 – 1Malaga
Malaga1 – 0Alaves
Malaga0 – 3Alaves
Alaves1 – 0Malaga
Malaga1 – 2Alaves
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alavesvs
Malaga
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 46.1%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 48.0%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?