Valladolid vs Leganes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio José Zorrilla
Mon 02 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.05
Draw
3.56
Away Win
3.81
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 3
Match Events ?
Valladolid
Leganes
Miguel Rubio (Iván Alejo) ⚽
6'
21'
⚽ Álex Millán
Miguel Rubio (Víctor Fernández) ⚽
24'
Adrian Arnu (Julien Ponceau) ⚽
30'
45+2'
🟨 Rubén Pulido
52'
🟨 Francisco Montero
Tay Abed ⚽
54'
60'
🟨 Rubén Peña
61'
🟨 Álvaro Morata
68'
⚽ Álvaro Morata (Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez)
90+1'
🟨 Yassine Kechta
Daniel Pérez Guerrero 🟨
90+1'
90+1'
⚽ Álvaro Morata (Unax del Cura)
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
17
Total Shots
21
10
Shots on Goal
10
6
Corner Kicks
4
13
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Valladolid (4-3-1-2)
Álvaro Aceves
Iván Alejo
Miguel Rubio
Pablo Tomeo
Iván Garriel
T. Ojeda
S. Jurić
J. Ponceau
T. Abed
Víctor Fernández
Adrian Arnuncio
Leganes (4-2-3-1)
Raúl Fernández
Rubén Peña
Rubén Pulido
Javi Montero
Enric Franquesa
A. Diawara
Ismaël Gharbi
Y. Kechta
Dani Rodríguez
Álex Sancris
Álex Millán
Player Ratings ?
Valladolid
Adrian ArnuncioF7.8
Miguel RubioD7.8
J. PonceauM7.7
Leganes
Álvaro MorataF8.2
Álex MillánF7.8
Ismaël GharbiM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Valladolid
Valladolid rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Leganes edge head-to-head, giving Valladolid a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leganes stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leganes have struggled away from home recently, recording just a single draw and four defeats in their last five outings, while Valladolid have found greater success at home with three victories from the same number of matches. The hosts have scored in four of their last five home fixtures but have also conceded in three of those same matches, having kept just two clean sheets during that recent spell. Valladolid rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Leganes rate stronger on head-to-head. Valladolid won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 14 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Leganes's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Valladolid's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Leganes's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Valladolid a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Leganes losing run
1
Leganes points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Valladolid
Valladolid's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Valladolid win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Valladolid win
Latest market chance 47.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
51.2% → 47.3%
−3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.1% → 27.2%
+1.1 pts
Leganes win
Latest market chance 25.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.7% → 25.5%
+2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Valladolid
Draw
Leganes
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ValladolidLeganes
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
17th
11
Games Played
11
1.09
Points/Game
1.09
1.45
Goals/Game
0.64
1.45
Conceded/Game
1.45
13.7
Shots/Game
12.0
5.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Valladolid at home (8 matches) vs Leganes away (9 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
0.56
3.00
Goals/Game
0.89
1.62
Conceded/Game
2.44
75%
Win Rate
11%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Valladolid
Home form
W
W
W
L
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
3.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leganes
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Valladolid Wins
2
Draws
1
Leganes Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Valladolid4 – 3Leganes
Valladolid3 – 2Leganes
Leganes3 – 0Valladolid
Leganes3 – 0Valladolid
Valladolid0 – 0Leganes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Valladolidvs
Leganes
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
0.50
1.70
Goals conceded / game
2.30
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
1/10
Failed to Score
7/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 3 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.1%→Latest 44.7%−2.4 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?