Valladolid vs Eldense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio José Zorrilla
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.04
Draw
3.39
Away Win
4.03
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Valladolid
Eldense
Adrian Arnu (Julien Ponceau) ⚽
23'
34'
🟨 Fidel
41'
⚽ Jorge Rastrojo (Javi Martínez)
45+1'
⚽ Aingeru Olabarrieta (Ramón Vila Rovira)
Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda 🟨
45+5'
45+5'
🟨 Justin Smith
Víctor Fernández 🟨
57'
62'
🟨 Jorge Rastrojo
Víctor Fernández 🟥
72'
78'
🟨 Juan Larios López
Iván Alejo 🟨
82'
Victor Barbera (Tay Abed) ⚽
83'
90+5'
⚽ Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo (Aingeru Olabarrieta)
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
16
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
5
13
Corner Kicks
2
10
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Valladolid (4-1-3-2)
Álvaro Aceves
Trilli
Pablo Tomeo
David Torres
Iván Garriel
S. Jurić
T. Ojeda
Víctor Fernández
J. Ponceau
Juanmi Latasa
Adrian Arnuncio
Eldense (4-2-3-1)
Ramón Vila
Jesús Clemente
Alex Serradell
F. Smand
Juan Larios
Carlos Guirao
J. Smith
Fidel
Javi Martínez
Aingeru Olabarrieta
Jorge Rastrojo
Player Ratings ?
Valladolid
Victor BarberáF8.2
Adrian ArnuncioF7.8
T. AbedF6.9
Eldense
Aingeru OlabarrietaM8.2
Jorge RastrojoF7.7
M. CarmonaF7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Valladolid edge attack and head-to-head, recent form and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valladolid enter at home with a strong run of four wins from their last five outings, while Eldense have struggled away in this period, managing just a solitary victory in five matches. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures and kept three clean sheets during that same period. Valladolid rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while form and defence are closely matched. Valladolid won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 13 April 2024, having won 2 of the last 2 encounters to Eldense's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Valladolid's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Eldense's implied win probability has risen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
48%
Valladolid yellow cards after 75'
3
Eldense points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Valladolid
Valladolid's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Valladolid win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Valladolid win
Latest market chance 47.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
49.3% → 47.5%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.2% → 28.6%
+1.4 pts
Eldense win
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 23.9%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Valladolid
Draw
Eldense
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ValladolidEldense
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
15th
9
Games Played
9
1.33
Points/Game
1.22
1.44
Goals/Game
1.11
1.22
Conceded/Game
1.22
13.7
Shots/Game
12.5
5.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Valladolid at home (8 matches) vs Eldense away (8 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
0.75
3.00
Goals/Game
0.50
1.62
Conceded/Game
1.62
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Valladolid
Home form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Eldense
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Valladolid Wins
2
Draws
0
Eldense Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.0
Valladolid1 – 0Eldense
Eldense0 – 1Valladolid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Valladolidvs
Eldense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.1%→Latest 47.9%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 51.6%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?