Valladolid vs Castellon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio José Zorrilla
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.90
Draw
3.74
Away Win
2.30
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Valladolid edge attack, Castellon edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Castellon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Castellon have recorded three wins from their last five away fixtures, while Valladolid boast four victories in their corresponding home outings over the same period. Valladolid have scored in every one of their last five home matches but have managed just two clean sheets during that identical run. Castellon rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while Valladolid rate stronger on attack. Castellon won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 8 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Valladolid's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Valladolid's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while Castellon's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Castellon unbeaten run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
48%
Castellon yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Castellon
Castellon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Castellon win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Valladolid win
Latest market chance 31.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
33.3% → 31.7%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.0%
−0.7 pts
Castellon win
Latest market chance 42.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
39.9% → 42.3%
+2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Valladolid
Draw
Castellon
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ValladolidCastellon
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
2nd
13
Games Played
12
1.38
Points/Game
2.25
1.69
Goals/Game
1.92
1.54
Conceded/Game
0.42
13.7
Shots/Game
13.8
5.5
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Valladolid at home (8 matches) vs Castellon away (9 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
2.44
3.00
Goals/Game
1.78
1.62
Conceded/Game
0.44
75%
Win Rate
78%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Valladolid
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
4.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Castellon
Away form
W
L
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Valladolid Wins
3
Draws
0
Castellon Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Valladolid0 – 4Castellon
Castellon0 – 1Valladolid
Castellon2 – 1Valladolid
Valladolid1 – 0Castellon
Valladolid1 – 0Castellon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Valladolidvs
Castellon
Recent Scoring Profile
2.90
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.70
Goals conceded / game
0.40
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 55.6%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.3%→Latest 59.5%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?