Sp Gijon vs Valladolid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.51
Draw
3.08
Away Win
3.21
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Sp Gijon
Valladolid
4'
⚽ Julien Ponceau (Iván Alejo)
Hugo Guillamón 🟨
8'
Jorge Sáenz 🟨
18'
32'
🟨 Stanko Jurić
39'
⚽ Tay Abed (Víctor Fernández)
43'
🟨 David Torres
45'
🟨 Iván Alejo
Gaspar Campos 🟨
45+3'
Miguel Conde 🟨
73'
Guillermo Rosas (Nikita Iosifov) ⚽
83'
Juan Otero 🟨
90+1'
Juan Otero 🟥
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
21
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Goal
6
9
Corner Kicks
6
15
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Sp Gijon (4-4-2)
Rubén Yáñez
Guille Rosas
Pablo Vázquez
Jorge Sáenz
Andrés Cuenca
Hugo Guillamón
Álex Corredera
Enol Prendes
Gaspar Campos
J. Otero
M. Conde
Valladolid (4-3-3)
Álvaro Aceves
Iván Alejo
Miguel Rubio
David Torres
Clerc
T. Ojeda
S. Jurić
J. Ponceau
T. Abed
Adrian Arnuncio
Víctor Fernández
Player Ratings ?
Sp Gijon
Álex CorrederaM7.6
Guille RosasD7.2
N. IosifovF7.2
Valladolid
T. AbedF8.2
Víctor FernándezF7.7
J. PonceauM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sp Gijon edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, Valladolid edge attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Valladolid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Gijon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Gijon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valladolid have found little success on the road in their last five away outings, managing just three draws and two defeats without a single victory, while Sp Gijon have secured three wins from their last five home matches despite also suffering two losses during that same period. At home, Sp Gijon have scored in three of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those same five fixtures. Sp Gijon rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head, while Valladolid rate stronger on attack. The most recent meeting, on 22 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Sp Gijon's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points, while Valladolid's implied win probability has fallen by 0.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Sp Gijon remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Gijon win
Latest market chance 39.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
40.5% → 39.4%
−1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.5% → 29.8%
+1.3 pts
Valladolid win
Latest market chance 30.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.9% → 30.8%
−0.1 pts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp GijonValladolid
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
13th
12
Games Played
12
1.83
Points/Game
1.25
1.08
Goals/Game
1.67
1.08
Conceded/Game
1.58
12.3
Shots/Game
13.7
4.2
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Sp Gijon at home (8 matches) vs Valladolid away (8 matches)
1.62
Points/Game
0.75
1.12
Goals/Game
1.00
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Gijon
Home form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Valladolid
Away form
D
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sp Gijon Wins
1
Draws
2
Valladolid Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Sp Gijon2 – 2Valladolid
Valladolid2 – 3Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon1 – 1Valladolid
Valladolid2 – 0Sp Gijon
Valladolid1 – 0Sp Gijon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Gijonvs
Valladolid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.80
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.9%→Latest 45.6%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?