Sp Gijon vs Albacete Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.98
Draw
3.57
Away Win
3.93
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Sp Gijon
Albacete
Alejo Sarco (Álex Corredera) ⚽
17'
Emanuel Gularte 🟨
63'
Hugo Guillamón 🟨
80'
Pablo García 🟨
83'
86'
⚽ Jesús Vallejo (Victor Valverde da Silva)
Nicolás Ricardo Larcamón 🟨
88'
90+4'
🟨 Diego Mariño
César Gelabert (Pablo García) ⚽
90+5'
90+7'
🟨 Higinio Marín
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
10
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
17
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Sp Gijon (4-4-2)
Rubén Yáñez
Guille Rosas
E. Gularte
Jorge Sáenz
Andrés Cuenca
César Gelabert
M. Rodriguez
Álex Corredera
Gaspar Campos
A. Sarco
Enol Prendes
Albacete (3-5-2)
Diego Mariño
Vallejo
Lluís López
Carlos Neva
José Corpas
San Bartolomé
Antonio Pacheco
Sergio Ortu
D. Bernabeu
Alex Rubio
Víctor Valverde
Player Ratings ?
Sp Gijon
A. SarcoF7.9
César GelabertM7.8
Álex CorrederaM7.7
Albacete
VallejoD7.0
Víctor ValverdeF6.6
Carlos NevaD6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Albacete edge head-to-head, giving Sp Gijon a strong edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Albacete stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Albacete have endured a difficult away run with just one draw from their last five visits, whereas Sp Gijon have secured two wins in their corresponding home outings over the same span. Sp Gijon have found the net in two of their last five home matches while also keeping two clean sheets during that identical period at this venue. Sp Gijon rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Albacete rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 15 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Sp Gijon's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Albacete's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sp Gijon a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Albacete losing run
1
Albacete points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Albacete
Albacete's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Albacete win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Sp Gijon remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Gijon win
Latest market chance 48.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
47.2% → 48.5%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 26.9%
+0.1 pts
Albacete win
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.0% → 24.6%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sp Gijon
Draw
Albacete
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp GijonAlbacete
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
22nd
9
Games Played
9
1.78
Points/Game
0.11
1.00
Goals/Game
0.56
0.89
Conceded/Game
2.22
12.3
Shots/Game
12.2
4.2
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Sp Gijon at home (8 matches) vs Albacete away (11 matches)
1.62
Points/Game
0.64
1.12
Goals/Game
0.91
1.12
Conceded/Game
2.27
50%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Gijon
Home form
D
W
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Albacete
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sp Gijon Wins
1
Draws
2
Albacete Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.0
Albacete1 – 1Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon3 – 4Albacete
Sp Gijon0 – 2Albacete
Albacete3 – 3Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon2 – 1Albacete
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Gijonvs
Albacete
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.40
0.90
Goals conceded / game
2.60
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 51.3%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 55.1%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Sp Gijon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?