Leganes vs Burgos Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Municipal de Butarque
Fri 13 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.49
Draw
3.19
Away Win
3.17
Match Prediction
Data favours
Burgos
Burgos rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Burgos an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burgos slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Burgos have secured three victories from their last five away outings in the current season, whereas Leganes remain winless at home with just two draws recorded in their last five matches. Leganes have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that same period. Burgos rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Burgos won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 31 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Leganes's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Leganes's implied win probability has fallen by 4.7 percentage points, while Burgos's implied win probability has risen by 3.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Burgos.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Leganes losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Leganes points from last 5 matches
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Leganes
Leganes's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Leganes win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Leganes win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
44.0% → 39.3%
−4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.8% → 30.0%
+1.2 pts
Burgos win
Latest market chance 30.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
27.3% → 30.7%
+3.4 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+5+2.50−2.5Nov 8Nov 9Nov 10Nov 12Nov 13
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Leganes
Draw
Burgos
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Leganes
Burgos
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
3rd
13
Games Played
13
0.92
Points/Game
1.85
0.85
Goals/Game
1.46
1.77
Conceded/Game
1.08
12.0
Shots/Game
12.0
4.2
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Leganes at home (10 matches) vs Burgos away (7 matches)
0.80
Points/Game
1.43
0.80
Goals/Game
1.43
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.43
20%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Leganes
Home form
L
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Burgos
Away form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Leganes Wins
2
Draws
0
Burgos Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
2026-01-312025-2026
Burgos2 – 1Leganes
2025-11-012025-2026
Leganes1 – 2Burgos
2024-01-222023-2024
Leganes2 – 0Burgos
2023-10-042023-2024
Burgos1 – 0Leganes
2023-05-122022-2023
Burgos0 – 3Leganes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leganes
vs
Burgos
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
68.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
42.1%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
23.4%
BTTSBoth teams score
50.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.3%→Latest 43.3%−3.0 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Nov 8Nov 9Nov 10Nov 12Nov 13
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 49.8%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Nov 8Nov 9Nov 10Nov 12Nov 13
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
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