Las Palmas vs Castellon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Gran Canaria
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.52
Draw
3.76
Away Win
2.04
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Las Palmas
Castellon
Alex Suárez 🟨
17'
18'
⚽ Israel Suero Fernández
Iñaki González Zambrano 🟨
19'
22'
⚽ Agustín Sienra (Pablo Santiago)
Iván Jaime 🟨
44'
49'
🟨 Matías Orozco
54'
⚽ Pablo Santiago
Juanma Herzog 🟨
72'
Elías Romero 🟨
83'
Andrés Rodríguez Martínez 🟨
87'
Jesé Rodríguez 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
5
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Goal
7
3
Corner Kicks
6
14
Fouls
15
7
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Las Palmas (5-4-1)
José Caro
Valentín Pezzolesi
Álex Suárez
Juan Herzog
A. Rodriguez
A. Bassinga
T. Miyashiro
Kirian Rodríguez
Iñaki González Zambrano
Iván Jaime
Jefté Betancor
Castellon (4-4-2)
R. Matthys
J. Mellot
Alberto Jiménez
A. Sienra
Iñigo Córdoba
Pablo Santiago
Barri
M. Orozco
Álvaro Martín
Israel Suero
A. Jakobsen
Player Ratings ?
Las Palmas
José CaroG6.5
E. LoiodiceM6.5
JeséF6.4
Castellon
Pablo SantiagoM9.0
A. SienraD8.2
Israel SueroF8.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Castellon
Castellon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Castellon a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Castellon have secured four victories in their last five away fixtures, whereas Las Palmas have recorded just one win alongside two defeats during that same sequence of home matches. Las Palmas have found the net in three of their last five home games but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once in that identical sample. Castellon rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Castellon a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Castellon unbeaten run
53%
Castellon yellow cards after 75'
12
Castellon points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Las Palmas win
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.4% → 27.3%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.5% → 25.4%
−0.1 pts
Castellon win
Latest market chance 47.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
47.2% → 47.2%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Las Palmas
Draw
Castellon
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Las PalmasCastellon
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
3rd
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
2.22
1.44
Goals/Game
1.67
1.78
Conceded/Game
0.44
9.9
Shots/Game
13.8
3.7
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Las Palmas at home (10 matches) vs Castellon away (9 matches)
1.70
Points/Game
2.44
1.10
Goals/Game
1.78
1.10
Conceded/Game
0.44
50%
Win Rate
78%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Las Palmas
Home form
L
W
D
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Castellon
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Las Palmas Wins
1
Draws
1
Castellon Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Las Palmas1 – 1Castellon
Castellon1 – 0Las Palmas
Castellon4 – 0Las Palmas
Las Palmas2 – 1Castellon
Castellon2 – 0Las Palmas
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Las Palmasvs
Castellon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
0.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.8%→Latest 58.3%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 61.1%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Las Palmas's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?