Granada vs Valladolid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Nuevo Los Cármenes
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.26
Draw
3.34
Away Win
3.38
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Granada
Valladolid
Sergio Rodelas Pintor (José Manuel Arnáiz) ⚽
14'
20'
🟨 Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda
50'
🟨 Julien Ponceau
57'
⚽ Iván Garriel (Julien Ponceau)
Juanjo Flores 🟨
61'
Jorge Pascual (Gerard Gumbau) ⚽
67'
73'
🟨 Iván Alejo
86'
🟨 Mathis Lachuer
90+7'
🟥 David Torres
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
10
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Goal
8
3
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
1
7
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Granada (4-3-3)
Alberto Flores
Sergio López
Juan José Flores Castro
Manu Lama
B. Diallo
Gumbau
Rubén Alcaraz
M. Gambin
Sergio Rodelas
Jorge Pascual
José Arnáiz
Valladolid (4-1-3-2)
Álvaro Aceves
Iván Alejo
Pablo Tomeo
David Torres
Iván Garriel
S. Jurić
T. Ojeda
T. Abed
J. Ponceau
Victor Barberá
Adrian Arnuncio
Player Ratings ?
Granada
Jorge PascualF8.2
Alberto FloresG8.1
GumbauM7.7
Valladolid
Álvaro AcevesG7.3
Iván GarrielD7.2
J. PonceauM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Granada edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Granada stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Granada stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valladolid have drawn three and lost two in their last five away outings, while Granada have secured two wins from five at home during the same period. Granada have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have kept just two clean sheets across that identical span. Granada rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Granada won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 14 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Valladolid's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Granada's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Valladolid's implied win probability has fallen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
45%
Valladolid yellow cards after 75'
3
Valladolid points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Granada
Granada's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Granada win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Granada win
Latest market chance 42.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
41.6% → 42.7%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.2% → 28.5%
−0.7 pts
Valladolid win
Latest market chance 28.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.2% → 28.8%
−0.4 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GranadaValladolid
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
13th
10
Games Played
10
1.70
Points/Game
1.20
1.60
Goals/Game
1.50
1.30
Conceded/Game
1.40
14.4
Shots/Game
13.7
4.2
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Granada at home (7 matches) vs Valladolid away (8 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.75
1.86
Goals/Game
1.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.50
57%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Granada
Home form
W
D
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Valladolid
Away form
L
L
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Granada Wins
3
Draws
0
Valladolid Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Granada5 – 1Valladolid
Valladolid2 – 1Granada
Valladolid1 – 2Granada
Granada1 – 3Valladolid
Granada2 – 1Valladolid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Granadavs
Valladolid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.9%→Latest 46.8%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 52.2%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?