Girona vs Almeria Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Estadi Montilivi
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.07
Draw
3.68
Away Win
3.55
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Girona
Almeria
Álex Moreno 🟨
30'
Fran Beltran 🟨
38'
Izan González 🟨
38'
38'
🟨 Stefan Džodić
54'
🟨 Marcos Luna
67'
⚽ Miguel De La Fuente
Mateu Morey 🟨
71'
89'
🟨 Álex Muñoz
Oleksandr Pyshchur 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
16
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
14
5
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Girona (4-4-2)
P. Gazzaniga
Mateu Morey
Alejandro Francés
Holmes Zamorano
Álex Moreno
Carles Pérez
I. Gonzalez
Fran Beltrán
Unai Hernández
V. Vanat
Abel Ruiz
Almeria (4-2-3-1)
Andrés Fernández
Marcos Luna
Jorge Pulido
F. Bonini
Leonardo Lelo
S. Džodić
Javi Muñoz
Sergio Arribas
Quim Junyent
B. Cipenga
Miguel de la Fuente
Player Ratings ?
Girona
Holmes ZamoranoD7.2
Y. AsprillaM7.0
Alejandro FrancésD6.9
Almeria
Miguel de la FuenteF8.2
Andrés FernándezG7.2
S. DžodićM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Girona edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Almeria edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Girona slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Girona stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Girona stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Almeria have secured three wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures without a single defeat, while Girona remain unbeaten at home with four victories and one draw in the same sample size. Girona have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept three clean sheets during that identical five-game period. Almeria rate stronger on form, while Girona rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 14 January 2024, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
7
Almeria unbeaten run
13
Girona points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Girona win
Latest market chance 46.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
46.5% → 46.6%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.9% → 26.2%
+0.3 pts
Almeria win
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.6% → 27.2%
−0.4 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Girona
Almeria
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
2nd
12
Games Played
12
1.75
Points/Game
2.17
1.83
Goals/Game
1.92
0.92
Conceded/Game
0.83
14.5
Shots/Game
12.7
4.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Girona at home (10 matches) vs Almeria away (9 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.89
2.30
Goals/Game
1.56
0.80
Conceded/Game
0.89
60%
Win Rate
56%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Girona
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2.8
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Almeria
Away form
W
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Girona Wins
3
Draws
1
Almeria Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.2
2024-01-142023-2024
Almeria0 – 0Girona
2023-10-222023-2024
Girona5 – 2Almeria
2023-02-172022-2023
Girona6 – 2Almeria
2022-10-202022-2023
Almeria3 – 2Girona
2022-03-272021-2022
Almeria0 – 1Girona
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Girona
vs
Almeria
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.20
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.20
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
76.6%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
53.0%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
32.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
57.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 53.0%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 57.0%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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