Ceuta vs Sp Gijon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.53
Draw
3.60
Away Win
2.80
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Ceuta
Sp Gijon
Kialy Abdoul Kone 🟨
17'
29'
⚽ Alejo Sarco (Guillermo Rosas)
José Antonio Abad Martínez 🟨
33'
Marino Illesca 🟨
45+2'
Carlos Hernández 🟨
47'
Adrián Lapeña 🟨
64'
67'
⚽ Guillermo Rosas (Gaspar Campos)
79'
🟨 Mamadou Loum
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez 🟨
87'
90'
🟨 Miguel Conde
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
14
Total Shots
20
5
Shots on Goal
8
6
Corner Kicks
3
19
Fouls
12
6
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
6
6
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Ceuta (4-3-3)
Guille Vallejo
Toni Abad
Carlos Hernández
Adrián Lapeña
Redru
Álex Meléndez
Y. Bodiger
Marino Illescas
Cedric Teguia
Kuki
K. Koné
Sp Gijon (3-5-2)
Rubén Yáñez
Aimar Duñabeitia
Jorge Sáenz
Andrés Cuenca
Guille Rosas
Hugo Guillamón
Álex Corredera
Gaspar Campos
Pablo García
J. Otero
A. Sarco
Player Ratings ?
Ceuta
Guille VallejoG8.0
Marino IllescasM7.2
Y. BodigerM6.7
Sp Gijon
Guille RosasM8.8
Rubén YáñezG8.0
Gaspar CamposM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ceuta edge attack and head-to-head, Sp Gijon edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ceuta stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Gijon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ceuta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Gijon arrive with an impressive away record of three victories from their last five outings, while Ceuta have secured just two wins in the same number of home fixtures. Ceuta have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that identical run. Sp Gijon rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Ceuta rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. Ceuta won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 3 May 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Sp Gijon's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Ceuta's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points, while Sp Gijon's implied win probability has fallen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sp Gijon win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. Ceuta remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ceuta win
Latest market chance 38.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
35.7% → 38.5%
+2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 27.4%
+0.2 pts
Sp Gijon win
Latest market chance 34.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
37.1% → 34.1%
−3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ceuta
Draw
Sp Gijon
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CeutaSp Gijon
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
8th
11
Games Played
11
0.45
Points/Game
1.73
0.91
Goals/Game
1.00
2.27
Conceded/Game
1.18
15.7
Shots/Game
12.3
4.2
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Ceuta at home (9 matches) vs Sp Gijon away (6 matches)
0.78
Points/Game
2.00
1.11
Goals/Game
1.17
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.17
22%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ceuta
Home form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Gijon
Away form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ceuta Wins
1
Draws
0
Sp Gijon Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Sp Gijon1 – 2Ceuta
Ceuta0 – 1Sp Gijon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ceutavs
Sp Gijon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.40
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.3%→Latest 51.5%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 56.8%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?