Ceuta vs Sabadell Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.14
Draw
3.38
Away Win
2.35
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Ceuta
Sabadell
14'
🟨 Ton Ripoll
Jordi Escobar 🟨
25'
26'
⚽ Ángel Baena (Quadri Liameed)
44'
🟨 Edgar Gonzalez
Jordi Escobar ⚽
45+5'
53'
🟥 Edgar Gonzalez
80'
⚽ Ángel Baena (Pere Pons)
88'
🟨 Eneko Aguilar
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
17
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
22
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
0
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Ceuta (4-3-3)
Guille Vallejo
Albert Caparrós
Carlos Hernández
D. Mas
José Matos
Kuki
Joaquín
Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
Jordi Escobar
E. Sevikyan
Sabadell (4-4-2)
Diego Fuoli
Óscar Sanz
Arthur Bonaldo
Edgar González
Miki Codina
Ton Ripoll
Urri
Alain Ribeiro
Q. Liameed
J. Priego
Ángel Baena
Player Ratings ?
Ceuta
E. SevikyanF7.2
Jordi EscobarF6.9
Albert CaparrósD6.7
Sabadell
Ángel BaenaF8.8
Q. LiameedM7.2
Arthur BonaldoNone6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sabadell edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sabadell stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sabadell stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Sabadell have drawn four of their last five away outings, while Ceuta have secured two victories from their last five home fixtures. Ceuta have scored in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that same period. Sabadell rate stronger on form and defence, while attack is closely matched. Over the 5-day comparison window, Ceuta's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Sabadell's implied win probability has risen by 0.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Ceuta
Ceuta's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ceuta win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Sabadell remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ceuta win
Latest market chance 30.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
31.1% → 30.3%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.9% → 28.7%
+0.8 pts
Sabadell win
Latest market chance 41.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.9% → 41.0%
+0.1 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CeutaSabadell
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
0.63
Points/Game
1.63
0.88
Goals/Game
1.00
2.25
Conceded/Game
0.75
15.7
Shots/Game
15.3
4.2
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Ceuta at home (9 matches) vs Sabadell away (10 matches)
0.78
Points/Game
1.00
1.11
Goals/Game
0.80
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.10
22%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ceuta
Home form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sabadell
Away form
D
D
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Ceuta and Sabadell.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ceutavs
Sabadell
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.90
Goals conceded / game
0.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.9%→Latest 47.5%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.8%→Latest 52.7%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Ceuta's 10 matches and 1 of Sabadell's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?