Castellon vs Sp Gijon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal Castalia
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.53
Draw
4.46
Away Win
6.25
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Castellon
Sp Gijon
Adam Jakobsen (Matías Orozco) ⚽
3'
7'
🟨 Hugo Guillamón
Israel Suero Fernández (Matías Orozco) ⚽
26'
Matías Orozco 🟨
35'
Adam Jakobsen (Matías Orozco) ⚽
52'
68'
🟨 Guillermo Rosas
Álvaro García Arana (Alvaro Martin) ⚽
87'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
14
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
5
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Castellon (4-4-2)
R. Matthys
J. Mellot
Alberto Jiménez
A. Sienra
Iñigo Córdoba
Pablo Santiago
M. Orozco
Barri
Álvaro Martín
Israel Suero
A. Jakobsen
Sp Gijon (4-4-2)
Rubén Yáñez
Guille Rosas
E. Gularte
Jorge Sáenz
Andrés Cuenca
Gaspar Campos
Hugo Guillamón
Álex Corredera
Pablo García
César Gelabert
J. Otero
Player Ratings ?
Castellon
M. OrozcoM9.3
A. JakobsenF8.6
Israel SueroF8.2
Sp Gijon
A. SarcoF6.6
César GelabertF6.5
J. OteroF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Castellon edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Castellon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Gijon have secured four wins from their last five away fixtures, while Castellon remain unbeaten at home with two victories and three draws in that same span. Castellon have scored in four of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Castellon rate stronger on attack and defence, with a slight advantage in form and head-to-head. Sp Gijon won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 15 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Castellon's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Castellon unbeaten run
47%
Castellon yellow cards after 75'
12
Sp Gijon points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Castellon win
Latest market chance 62.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
63.3% → 62.9%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.4% → 21.7%
+0.3 pts
Sp Gijon win
Latest market chance 15.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.4% → 15.4%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Castellon
Draw
Sp Gijon
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CastellonSp Gijon
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
7th
10
Games Played
10
2.30
Points/Game
1.90
1.80
Goals/Game
1.10
0.40
Conceded/Game
0.90
13.8
Shots/Game
12.3
4.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Castellon at home (5 matches) vs Sp Gijon away (6 matches)
2.20
Points/Game
2.00
2.40
Goals/Game
1.17
0.20
Conceded/Game
1.17
60%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Castellon
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Gijon
Away form
W
W
W
L
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Castellon Wins
3
Draws
0
Sp Gijon Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.2
Sp Gijon4 – 1Castellon
Castellon3 – 1Sp Gijon
Castellon4 – 3Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon2 – 1Castellon
Castellon2 – 0Sp Gijon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Castellonvs
Sp Gijon
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.30
0.40
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.4%→Latest 55.8%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 52.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?