Cadiz vs Sp Gijon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Nuevo Mirandilla
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.18
Draw
3.30
Away Win
3.60
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Cadiz
Sp Gijon
32'
🟨 Manuel Rodríguez Paz
Sergio Arribas Prieto 🟨
50'
54'
🟨 Jorge Sáenz
87'
⚽ Pablo García
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
7
Total Shots
13
1
Shots on Goal
1
8
Corner Kicks
6
8
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Cadiz (4-2-3-1)
David Gil
J. Diaz Peregrina
Javi Castro
Manu Fernández
Sergio Arribas
Jandro Orellana
D. A. Zarate Hidalgo
Ibon Sánchez
A. Moueffek
Antonio Cordero
V. Kopotun
Sp Gijon (4-2-3-1)
Rubén Yáñez
Guille Rosas
E. Gularte
Jorge Sáenz
Andrés Cuenca
M. Rodriguez
Álex Corredera
Enol Prendes
César Gelabert
Gaspar Campos
A. Sarco
Player Ratings ?
Cadiz
D. A. Zarate HidalgoM7.0
Javi CastroD6.8
J. Diaz PeregrinaD6.8
Sp Gijon
Pablo GarcíaD7.8
Álex CorrederaM7.2
Guille RosasD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cadiz edge attack, Sp Gijon edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cadiz slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Gijon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Gijon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Gijon arrive with an impressive away record, having secured four victories from their last five outings across seasons, while Cadiz have found consistency harder to find at home with two wins and two defeats in their most recent five matches. At the club's home venue, Cadiz have found the net in four of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Sp Gijon rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head, while Cadiz hold a slight advantage in attack. Sp Gijon won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 19 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Cadiz's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Cadiz's implied win probability has risen by 5.3 percentage points, while Sp Gijon's implied win probability has fallen by 5.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Cadiz losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
12
Sp Gijon points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sp Gijon win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Cadiz remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cadiz win
Latest market chance 42.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.2% → 42.5%
+5.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.1% → 29.2%
+0.1 pts
Sp Gijon win
Latest market chance 28.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.7% → 28.2%
−5.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cadiz
Draw
Sp Gijon
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CadizSp Gijon
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
8th
8
Games Played
8
0.88
Points/Game
1.63
1.38
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.5
Shots/Game
12.3
3.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Cadiz at home (10 matches) vs Sp Gijon away (6 matches)
1.10
Points/Game
2.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.17
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.17
30%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cadiz
Home form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Gijon
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cadiz Wins
2
Draws
0
Sp Gijon Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Sp Gijon3 – 0Cadiz
Cadiz3 – 2Sp Gijon
Cadiz1 – 0Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon2 – 0Cadiz
Sp Gijon1 – 0Cadiz
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cadizvs
Sp Gijon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.2%→Latest 45.9%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.3%→Latest 52.0%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Sp Gijon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?