Cadiz vs Ceuta Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Nuevo Mirandilla
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.94
Draw
3.50
Away Win
4.28
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Cadiz
Ceuta
45+1'
⚽ (P) Yann Bodiger
Dilan Zárate 🟨
45+3'
Álvaro García Pascual 🟨
49'
Ibon Ignacio Sánchez Océn ⚽
51'
Beñat de Jesús Domingo 🟨
64'
70'
🟨 Albert Caparros
Antonio Cordero ⚽ (P)
71'
Sergio Arribas Prieto 🟨
81'
90+1'
🟨 José Juan Romero Gil
Borja Vazquez 🟨
90+2'
90+3'
🟨 Umaru Konare
Borja Vazquez (Álvaro García Pascual) ⚽
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
32%
Ball Possession
68%
11
Total Shots
24
5
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
10
20
Fouls
7
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Cadiz (4-4-2)
Jokin Ezkieta
Beñat de Jesús
B. Kovačević
Manu Fernández
Sergio Arribas
Ibon Sánchez
D. A. Zarate Hidalgo
Damián Rodríguez
Antonio Cordero
Urko Izeta
V. Kopotun
Ceuta (4-3-3)
Pedro López
Toni Abad
Albert Caparrós
Adrián Lapeña
Redru
Álex Meléndez
Y. Bodiger
Marino Illescas
E. Sevikyan
Kuki
Cedric Teguia
Player Ratings ?
Cadiz
Ibon SánchezM7.6
Borja VazquezF7.2
Antonio CorderoM7.2
Ceuta
Y. BodigerM7.3
Álex MeléndezM6.9
K. KonéF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cadiz edge recent form and defence, Ceuta edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cadiz stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Cadiz stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ceuta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ceuta have recorded just one win and a single draw from their last five away outings across seasons, while Cadiz have secured two victories in three defeats over their most recent home fixtures. Cadiz have found the net in three of their last five matches at home, yet they have kept just two clean sheets in that same period. Cadiz rate stronger on form and defence, while Ceuta rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Ceuta won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 28 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Cadiz's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.5 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Cadiz's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points, while Ceuta's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Cadiz
Cadiz's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Cadiz win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cadiz win
Latest market chance 49.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
51.1% → 49.2%
−1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.8%
+0.5 pts
Ceuta win
Latest market chance 24.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.6% → 24.0%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cadiz
Draw
Ceuta
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CadizCeuta
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
21st
10
Games Played
10
0.70
Points/Game
0.50
1.10
Goals/Game
0.90
1.30
Conceded/Game
2.20
11.5
Shots/Game
15.7
3.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Cadiz at home (10 matches) vs Ceuta away (7 matches)
1.10
Points/Game
0.14
1.50
Goals/Game
0.57
1.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
30%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cadiz
Home form
L
L
W
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ceuta
Away form
W
L
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cadiz Wins
0
Draws
1
Ceuta Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.5
Ceuta2 – 1Cadiz
Cadiz0 – 0Ceuta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cadizvs
Ceuta
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 50.1%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 53.7%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?