Burgos vs Sabadell Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Municipal El Plantio
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.99
Draw
2.89
Away Win
2.84
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Burgos
Sabadell
Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña 🟨
4'
Grego Sierra 🟨
13'
29'
🟨 Óscar Sanz
Sergio Francisco 🟨
31'
Curro ⚽ (P)
63'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
13
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Goal
2
10
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
21
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Burgos (4-2-3-1)
Ander Cantero
Álex
Oier Luengo
Grego
Brais Martínez
Unai Vencedor
P. Galdames
K. Appin
David González
Javi Llabrés
Jon Karrikaburu
Sabadell (3-1-4-2)
Diego Fuoli
José Luis Català
Óscar Sanz
Arthur Bonaldo
Urri
Ton Ripoll
Q. Liameed
Pere Pons
Pipa
J. Priego
Ángel Baena
Player Ratings ?
Burgos
Curro SánchezM7.8
K. AppinM7.4
GregoD7.1
Sabadell
Diego FuoliG7.7
Arthur BonaldoNone6.9
UrriM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sabadell edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sabadell slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sabadell stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Sabadell have shown resilience on their travels with two wins and a single defeat from five away outings in this period, while Burgos remain competitive at home with two victories and two losses in the same span. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches at this venue, though they have managed only one clean sheet during that identical run. Sabadell rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while attack is closely matched. Over the 6-day comparison window, Burgos's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Sabadell's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Burgos
Burgos's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Burgos win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burgos win
Latest market chance 33.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
35.2% → 33.9%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 32.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
31.2% → 32.3%
+1.1 pts
Sabadell win
Latest market chance 33.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
33.6% → 33.8%
+0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burgos
Draw
Sabadell
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurgosSabadell
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
6th
9
Games Played
9
1.56
Points/Game
1.78
1.33
Goals/Game
1.11
1.11
Conceded/Game
0.78
12.0
Shots/Game
15.3
4.0
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Burgos at home (10 matches) vs Sabadell away (10 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
0.80
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.10
60%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burgos
Home form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sabadell
Away form
L
D
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Burgos and Sabadell.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burgosvs
Sabadell
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 39.1%→Latest 37.2%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.2%→Latest 44.6%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?