Burgos vs Celta B Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Municipal El Plantio
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.61
Draw
4.13
Away Win
5.58
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Burgos
Celta B
12'
⚽ Alvaro·Marin Sesma (Aldrine Kibet)
Victor Mollejo 🟨
27'
29'
🟨 Joel Lopez
49'
🟨 Alvaro·Marin Sesma
50'
🟨 Adrià Capdevila
Curro (Alberto Dadie) ⚽
68'
Álex Forés (Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios) ⚽
86'
89'
🟨 Enrique Ribes Recaj
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
19
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Goal
1
10
Corner Kicks
1
13
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Burgos (4-4-2)
Ander Cantero
Álex
Oier Luengo
Saúl del Cerro
Brais Martínez
Alberto Dadie
Unai Vencedor
P. Galdames
Víctor Mollejo
Álex Forés
Curro Sánchez
Celta B (3-4-2-1)
Coke Carrillo
K. Ribes
S. M. Ndiaye
Joel López
G. Miller
Adrià Capdevila
M. Sobral
Jan Oliveras
A. Kibet
Ángel Arcos
A. Marin
Player Ratings ?
Burgos
Álex ForésF8.2
Curro SánchezF8.1
Alberto DadieM7.7
Celta B
A. MarinF7.6
Ángel ArcosM6.8
H. CuencaM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Burgos
Burgos rate stronger in recent form and defence; Celta B edge attack, giving Burgos a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 3 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Celta B slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Burgos have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Celta B have managed just a solitary win across their last five away fixtures. At home, Burgos have found the net in three of their last five matches but have kept two clean sheets during that same period. Burgos rate stronger on form and defence, while Celta B hold a slight advantage in attack. Over the 4-day comparison window, Burgos's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points, while Celta B's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Burgos a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
48%
Celta B yellow cards after 75'
3
Celta B points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Burgos
Burgos's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Burgos win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burgos win
Latest market chance 58.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
54.6% → 58.7%
+4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.4% → 23.7%
−1.7 pts
Celta B win
Latest market chance 17.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
20.1% → 17.6%
−2.5 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurgosCelta B
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
16th
12
Games Played
12
1.75
Points/Game
1.08
1.42
Goals/Game
1.50
1.08
Conceded/Game
1.92
12.0
Shots/Game
11.6
4.0
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Burgos at home (10 matches) vs Celta B away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.50
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.38
60%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burgos
Home form
W
L
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Celta B
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Burgos and Celta B.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burgosvs
Celta B
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
10/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 52.4%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.4%→Latest 51.6%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?