Burgos vs Castellon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Municipal El Plantio
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.86
Draw
3.36
Away Win
2.11
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Burgos
Castellon
2'
⚽ Israel Suero Fernández
Curro 🟨
41'
Oier Luengo Redondo (Javier Llabrés Exposito) ⚽
45+1'
Grego Sierra 🟨
45+2'
Pablo Galdames 🟨
50'
60'
🟥 Matías Orozco
60'
🟨 Agustín Sienra
66'
🟨 Adam Jakobsen
79'
🟨 Juanjo Nieto
90+1'
🟨 Romain Matthys
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
9
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Goal
1
1
Corner Kicks
1
14
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
8
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Burgos (5-3-2)
Ander Cantero
Alberto Dadie
Álex
Oier Luengo
Grego
Brais Martínez
Curro Sánchez
Unai Vencedor
P. Galdames
Álex Forés
Javi Llabrés
Castellon (4-4-2)
R. Matthys
Pablo Santiago
J. Mellot
Alberto Jiménez
A. Sienra
Israel Suero
M. Orozco
Barri
Iñigo Córdoba
A. Jakobsen
Álvaro Martín
Player Ratings ?
Burgos
Oier LuengoD7.9
Javi LlabrésF7.1
ÁlexD7.0
Castellon
Israel SueroM7.6
Alberto JiménezD7.0
R. MatthysG6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Castellon
Castellon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Castellon a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Castellon have enjoyed a strong away run with four wins from their last five visits, while Burgos have secured three victories in their home outings over the same period. At home, Burgos have found the net in three of their last five matches but have managed to keep a clean sheet only twice during that identical sample. Castellon rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Castellon won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 18 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 4 encounters to Burgos's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.25 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Castellon a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Castellon unbeaten run
12
Castellon points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burgos win
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.0% → 26.9%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 27.5%
+0.7 pts
Castellon win
Latest market chance 45.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
46.2% → 45.6%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burgos
Draw
Castellon
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurgosCastellon

Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
1st
11
Games Played
11
1.82
Points/Game
2.36
1.45
Goals/Game
2.00
1.09
Conceded/Game
0.36
12.0
Shots/Game
13.8
4.0
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Burgos at home (10 matches) vs Castellon away (9 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
2.44
1.50
Goals/Game
1.78
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.44
60%
Win Rate
78%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Burgos
Home form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Castellon
Away form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burgos Wins
0
Draws
1
Castellon Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
Castellon3 – 1Burgos
Burgos0 – 0Castellon
Castellon2 – 1Burgos
Burgos0 – 2Castellon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burgosvs
Castellon

Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.20
Goals conceded / game
0.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.0%→Latest 53.0%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 56.9%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?