Almeria vs Oviedo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
UD Almería Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.72
Draw
3.79
Away Win
5.08
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Almeria
Oviedo
Sergio Arribas Calvo (Quim junyent) ⚽
16'
Miguel De La Fuente (Álex Muñoz) ⚽
27'
45+1'
🟨 David Costas
53'
🟨 Pablo Saenz
Marcos Luna 🟨
54'
75'
🟨 Nacho Vidal
Adrián Embarba 🟨
82'
86'
🟨 Víctor García Mingo
87'
⚽ Jacobo González
90'
⚽ (OG) Jorge Pulido
90+2'
🟨 Daniel Villahermosa
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
7
Total Shots
20
3
Shots on Goal
8
4
Corner Kicks
7
11
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
7
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Almeria (4-2-3-1)
Andrés Fernández
Marcos Luna
Jorge Pulido
F. Bonini
Álex Muñoz
S. Džodić
Javi Muñoz
Quim Junyent
Sergio Arribas
B. Cipenga
Miguel de la Fuente
Oviedo (4-2-3-1)
Aarón Escandell
Nacho Vidal
David Costas
Dani Calvo
S. Rodriguez
Aritz Aldasoro
Y. Didi
Alberto Reina
Mikel Goti
Enzo Perez
José Luis Morales
Player Ratings ?
Almeria
Sergio ArribasM8.1
Andrés FernándezG7.8
Miguel de la FuenteF7.7
Oviedo
Jacobo GonzálezF7.4
Y. DidiM7.2
EstanisF7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Almeria edge recent form, attack and defence, Oviedo edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Oviedo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Oviedo have recorded two victories in their last five away outings, while Almeria remain unbeaten at home over the same span. Almeria have found the net in each of their last five home matches but have kept just two clean sheets during that period. Almeria rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Oviedo rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 1 February 2025, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Almeria's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Oviedo's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Almeria
Almeria's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Almeria win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Almeria win
Latest market chance 56.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
55.2% → 56.0%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.8% → 24.8%
±0.0 pts
Oviedo win
Latest market chance 19.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
20.0% → 19.2%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Almeria
Draw
Oviedo
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlmeriaOviedo
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
9th
10
Games Played
10
2.40
Points/Game
1.70
2.00
Goals/Game
1.30
0.70
Conceded/Game
1.00
12.7
Shots/Game
15.6
4.2
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Almeria at home (8 matches) vs Oviedo away (10 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.70
2.38
Goals/Game
1.70
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.80
75%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Almeria
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Oviedo
Away form
W
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Almeria Wins
1
Draws
2
Oviedo Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Almeria1 – 1Oviedo
Oviedo3 – 2Almeria
Oviedo2 – 0Almeria
Almeria2 – 1Oviedo
Almeria2 – 2Oviedo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Almeriavs
Oviedo
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.70
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 52.2%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 52.5%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?