Standard vs Charleroi Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Maurice Dufrasnestadion
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.89
Draw
3.46
Away Win
2.52
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Standard
Charleroi
I. Hautekiet 🟨
36'
45'
🟨 A. Boukamir
58'
⚽ C. Keita (P. Pflucke)
G. Mortensen 🟥
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
16
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
8
17
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Standard (4-3-3)
Matthieu Epolo
Marlon Fossey
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibe Hautekiet
Gustav Mortensen
Casper Nielsen
Alexis Trouillet
Rayan Touzghar
Bernard Nguene
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Adnane Abid
Charleroi (4-2-3-1)
Mohamed Koné
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Aiham Ousou
Cheick Keita
Mardochee Nzita
Amine Boukamir
Yassine Khalifi
Patrick Pflücke
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Freddy Mbemba
Aurélien Scheidler
Player Ratings ?
Standard
Matthieu EpoloG8.3
Ibrahim KaramokoD7.3
Alexis TrouilletM7.2
Charleroi
Patrick PflückeM8.3
Cheick KeitaD8.2
Aiham OusouD7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Charleroi edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Charleroi stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Charleroi slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Charleroi stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Charleroi stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Charleroi arrive at this Belgian Pro League fixture with an impressive record of five straight away victories across their last five outings, while Standard look to build on a mixed home campaign featuring two wins, two draws and one defeat in their most recent five matches. At home, Standard have found the net in three of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Charleroi rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Charleroi won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 23 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Standard's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Standard's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Charleroi's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Charleroi unbeaten run
62%
Charleroi yellow cards after 75'
15
Charleroi points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Charleroi
Charleroi's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Charleroi win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Standard win
Latest market chance 33.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
32.3% → 33.7%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.8%
+0.3 pts
Charleroi win
Latest market chance 38.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
40.1% → 38.5%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Standard
Draw
Charleroi
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StandardCharleroi
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
4th
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
2.57
1.86
Goals/Game
2.14
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.00
14.5
Shots/Game
17.5
4.8
Shots on Target
6.2
Home vs Away Context
Standard at home (6 matches) vs Charleroi away (6 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
2.50
1.50
Goals/Game
1.83
0.67
Conceded/Game
0.83
50%
Win Rate
83%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Standard
Home form
D
L
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Charleroi
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Standard Wins
2
Draws
0
Charleroi Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Standard0 – 2Charleroi
Charleroi1 – 2Standard
Charleroi2 – 0Standard
Standard3 – 1Charleroi
Standard0 – 1Charleroi
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Standardvs
Charleroi
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.3%→Latest 52.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 57.3%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Standard's 10 matches and 3 of Charleroi's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?