St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Joseph Marien
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.24
Draw
6.09
Away Win
12.39
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
St. Gilloise
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
6'
🟨 W. Balikwisha
17'
⚽ D. Opoku (W. George)
42'
🟨 J. Lawrence
43'
🟨 O. Gil
D. Opoku ⚽ (OG)
66'
L. Patris 🟥
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
18
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
4
11
Fouls
11
0
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
St. Gilloise (3-1-4-2)
Hervé Koffi
Nikki Havenaar
Massire Sylla
Nohim Chibani
Kamiel Van de Perre
Louis Patris
Besfort Zeneli
Darius Olaru
Guilherme Smith
Mateo Biondic
Relebohile Mofokeng
Oud-Heverlee Leuven (3-4-3)
Kiany Vroman
Jamie Lawrence
Noë Dussenne
Roggerio Nyakossi
Óscar Gil
Wouter George
Siebe Schrijvers
Davis Opoku
Łukasz Łakomy
Robin Mirisola
William Balikwisha
Player Ratings ?
St. Gilloise
Kamiel Van de PerreM7.7
Louis PatrisM7.6
Besfort ZeneliM7.3
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Roggerio NyakossiD7.7
Óscar GilM7.3
Siebe SchrijversM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving St. Gilloise a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St. Gilloise have enjoyed a robust home record with four wins and no defeats in their last five outings, while Oud-Heverlee Leuven have struggled away from the ground, managing just one draw and suffering four losses in their recent five matches. Despite scoring in four of their last five home matches, St. Gilloise have also kept four clean sheets during that same period. St. Gilloise rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 24 January 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, St. Gilloise's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points, while Oud-Heverlee Leuven's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives St. Gilloise a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven losing run
1
Oud-Heverlee Leuven points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a St. Gilloise win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St. Gilloise win
Latest market chance 75.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
74.5% → 75.5%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
16.0% → 15.7%
−0.3 pts
Oud-Heverlee Leuven win
Latest market chance 8.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
9.5% → 8.8%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St. Gilloise
Draw
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St. GilloiseOud-Heverlee Leuven
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
7
2.71
Points/Game
0.57
3.00
Goals/Game
0.71
0.43
Conceded/Game
1.86
17.7
Shots/Game
15.1
7.1
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
St. Gilloise at home (6 matches) vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven away (5 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.80
2.50
Goals/Game
0.80
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.80
67%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St. Gilloise
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St. Gilloise Wins
3
Draws
2
Oud-Heverlee Leuven Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven0 – 0St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise5 – 0Oud-Heverlee Leuven
St. Gilloise1 – 0Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Oud-Heverlee Leuven1 – 1St. Gilloise
Oud-Heverlee Leuven0 – 2St. Gilloise
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St. Gilloisevs
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.7%→Latest 65.1%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 49.5%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of St. Gilloise's 10 matches and 3 of Oud-Heverlee Leuven's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?