Mechelen vs St Truiden Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Achter de Kazerne
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 18:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.42
Draw
3.46
Away Win
2.21
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 3
Match Events ?
Mechelen
St Truiden
5'
🟨 K. Takai
K. Takai ⚽ (OG)
24'
S. Michez ⚽
34'
S. Taniguchi ⚽ (OG)
39'
42'
🟨 K. Matsuzawa
44'
⚽ S. Bazdar (R. Merlen)
49'
⚽ I. Sebaoui
M. Decherf 🟨
53'
B. Raman (K. Corbanie) ⚽
62'
71'
⚽ F. Soelle
84'
🟨 N. Ishiwatari
88'
🟨 S. Taniguchi
F. Hammar 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
36%
Ball Possession
64%
8
Total Shots
17
3
Shots on Goal
7
2
Corner Kicks
8
12
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
4
4
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Mechelen (3-4-2-1)
Nacho Miras
Kobe Corbanie
Mike Eerdhuijzen
José Marsà
Simion Michez
Fredrik Hammar
Marco Decherf
Thérence Koudou
Benito Raman
Myron Van Brederode
Bouke Boersma
St Truiden (4-2-3-1)
Léo Kokubo
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Kota Takai
Shogo Taniguchi
Taiga Hata
Ryan Merlen
Abdoulaye Sissako
Kaito Matsuzawa
Ryotaro Araki
Ilias Sebaoui
Samed Baždar
Player Ratings ?
Mechelen
Benito RamanF7.7
Nacho MirasG7.3
Mike EerdhuijzenD7.2
St Truiden
Ilias SebaouiM7.7
Samed BaždarF7.3
Frederic Soelle SoelleF7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
St Truiden
St Truiden rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving St Truiden an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Truiden stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St Truiden stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Truiden slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Truiden stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Truiden have secured just a solitary victory and drawn once in their last five away outings, while Mechelen have managed only one win from their corresponding five home fixtures. Mechelen have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have kept just a single clean sheet during that same period. St Truiden rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. St Truiden won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 24 May 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Mechelen's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Mechelen's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points, while St Truiden's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours St Truiden.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from St Truiden
St Truiden's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a St Truiden win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mechelen win
Latest market chance 29.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.0% → 29.5%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.6%
+0.3 pts
St Truiden win
Latest market chance 43.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
44.8% → 43.8%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mechelen
Draw
St Truiden
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MechelenSt Truiden
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
12th
7
Games Played
7
0.43
Points/Game
1.14
0.71
Goals/Game
1.71
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.71
11.8
Shots/Game
17.1
3.5
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Mechelen at home (5 matches) vs St Truiden away (5 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
0.80
1.60
Goals/Game
2.40
2.20
Conceded/Game
2.60
40%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mechelen
Home form
W
D
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Truiden
Away form
L
L
D
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mechelen Wins
0
Draws
1
St Truiden Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
St Truiden3 – 0Mechelen
Mechelen1 – 4St Truiden
St Truiden1 – 0Mechelen
Mechelen1 – 3St Truiden
Mechelen1 – 1St Truiden
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mechelenvs
St Truiden
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
6/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 56.3%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 59.4%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Mechelen's 10 matches and 3 of St Truiden's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?