Twente vs Ajax Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
De Grolsch Veste
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.18
Draw
4.01
Away Win
3.05
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Twente
Ajax
3'
⚽ Tolu Arokodare (Oscar Gloukh)
35'
🟨 Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
52'
🟨 Tolu Arokodare
Robin Propper 🟨
60'
64'
🟨 Aaron Bouwman
66'
⚽ Rayane Bounida (Oscar Gloukh)
Dies Janse ⚽ (OG)
68'
70'
🟨 Oscar Gloukh
Daouda Weidmann 🟨
82'
Ramiz Zerrouki 🟨
90+2'
90+4'
🟨 Owen Wijndal
Wout Weghorst ⚽ (P)
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
22
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
2
10
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Twente (4-2-3-1)
J. Drommel
B. van Rooij
R. Pröpper
R. Nijstad
A. Adelgaard
R. Zerrouki
D. Weidmann
D. Rots
Y. Taha
S. Ørjasæter
W. Weghorst
Ajax (4-2-3-1)
M. ter Stegen
Lucas Rosa
A. Bouwman
D. Janse
O. Wijndal
Y. Bissouma
Y. Baas
D. Klaassen
J. Mokio
O. Gloukh
T. Arokodare
Player Ratings ?
Twente
W. WeghorstF7.7
M. PjacaF7.2
D. RotsM6.8
Ajax
O. GloukhM7.8
Rayane BounidaF7.5
T. ArokodareF7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Twente edge defence, Ajax edge head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Twente slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ajax have enjoyed a perfect run away from home with five wins from their last five outings, while Twente have secured four victories in just one defeat during that same span at the club's home venue. Twente have found the net in each of their last five matches at home but have managed to keep a clean sheet in only two of those same five fixtures. Twente hold a slight advantage in defence, while Ajax rate stronger on head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. Twente won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 April 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Ajax's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Twente's implied win probability has risen by 5.8 percentage points, while Ajax's implied win probability has fallen by 6.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
15
Ajax points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Ajax
Ajax's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ajax win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Twente remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Twente win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.0% → 42.8%
+5.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.8% → 24.5%
+0.7 pts
Ajax win
Latest market chance 32.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
39.2% → 32.7%
−6.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Twente
Draw
Ajax
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
TwenteAjax
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
2nd
11
Games Played
11
2.09
Points/Game
2.18
2.55
Goals/Game
2.73
0.91
Conceded/Game
1.18
21.2
Shots/Game
19.8
7.4
Shots on Target
6.7
Home vs Away Context
Twente at home (6 matches) vs Ajax away (6 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
2.67
2.00
Goals/Game
3.33
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
83%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Twente
Home form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ajax
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
3.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Twente Wins
1
Draws
1
Ajax Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Ajax1 – 2Twente
Twente2 – 3Ajax
Ajax2 – 0Twente
Twente2 – 2Ajax
Ajax2 – 1Twente
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Twentevs
Ajax
Recent Scoring Profile
2.80
Goals scored / game
2.80
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.9%→Latest 65.1%−3.8 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 69.4%→Latest 66.7%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?