Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.65
Draw
4.49
Away Win
4.70
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
17'
⚽ Tonny Vilhena
Jens Toornstra ⚽
39'
41'
🟨 Finn Stam
Lushendry Martes ⚽
50'
Milan Zonneveld (Jens Toornstra) ⚽
57'
Rogier Meijer 🟨
59'
68'
⚽ Uriël van Aalst (Vito van Crooy)
70'
🟨 Vito van Crooy
Lushendry Martes 🟨
70'
75'
🟨 Thomas Verheydt
Alwande Benedict Roaldsøy 🟨
78'
Milan Zonneveld 🟨
85'
Bas Kuipers 🟨
88'
90+3'
🟨 Chido Obi
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
22
Total Shots
13
8
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
12
4
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Sparta Rotterdam (5-4-1)
M. Brouwer
L. Martes
M. Young
N. Verschuren
B. Martins Indi
B. Kuipers
Robin van Cruijsen
J. Toornstra
Cedric Hatenboer
I. Babadi
M. Zonneveld
Willem II (4-2-3-1)
M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest
F. Stam
M. Dekker
N. Tjoe-A-On
Anass Zarrouk
T. Vilhena
J. Slory
Uriel van Aalst
V. van Crooij
D. Haen
Player Ratings ?
Sparta Rotterdam
J. ToornstraM8.1
M. ZonneveldF7.9
I. BabadiM7.0
Willem II
T. VilhenaM7.2
Uriel van AalstM7.2
M. DelangheG6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Sparta Rotterdam a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sparta Rotterdam stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sparta Rotterdam stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides arrive at this Eredivisie clash with identical struggles in their last five outings, as Willem II have drawn twice and lost three away from home while Sparta Rotterdam mirror that exact tally of two draws and three defeats at the venue. Sparta Rotterdam have found the net in just three of their last five home matches and have conceded in every single one of those same five fixtures. The hosts face two confirmed absences ahead of kickoff, whereas Willem II must manage four definite out-counts alongside one player listed as doubtful for the encounter. Sparta Rotterdam rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Sparta Rotterdam won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 2 March 2025, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Willem II's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Sparta Rotterdam's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points, while Willem II's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sparta Rotterdam a slight edge.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sparta Rotterdam win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sparta Rotterdam win
Latest market chance 58.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
60.9% → 58.9%
−2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.6% → 22.0%
+0.4 pts
Willem II win
Latest market chance 19.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
17.5% → 19.1%
+1.6 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
15 snapshots
+2+10−1Oct 3Oct 7Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sparta Rotterdam
Draw
Willem II
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
8
0.75
Points/Game
0.25
1.62
Goals/Game
0.88
2.50
Conceded/Game
2.88
13.9
Shots/Game
11.1
5.1
Shots on Target
2.8
Home vs Away Context
Sparta Rotterdam at home (6 matches) vs Willem II away (6 matches)
0.83
Points/Game
0.17
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
3.83
17%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sparta Rotterdam
Home form
L
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Willem II
Away form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sparta Rotterdam Wins
4
Draws
0
Willem II Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
2025-03-022024-2025
Sparta Rotterdam4 – 0Willem II
2024-08-312024-2025
Willem II1 – 2Sparta Rotterdam
2022-02-132021-2022
Sparta Rotterdam1 – 0Willem II
2021-11-062021-2022
Willem II0 – 3Sparta Rotterdam
2021-02-282020-2021
Sparta Rotterdam0 – 2Willem II
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Willem II
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.90
2.70
Goals conceded / game
2.60
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
83.7%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
65.1%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
44.6%
BTTSBoth teams score
62.1%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.1%→Latest 65.1%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 3Oct 7Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 14 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.0%→Latest 62.1%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 3Oct 7Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 14 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Sparta Rotterdam's 10 matches and 2 of Willem II's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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