Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 15:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
6.32
Draw
5.40
Away Win
1.44
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
22'
⚽ Abdellah Ouazane (Julian Brandt)
Jens Toornstra (Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi) ⚽
43'
45+1'
⚽ Tolu Arokodare (Julian Brandt)
64'
🟨 Julian Brandt
Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi 🟨
89'
90+3'
🟨 Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
11
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Sparta Rotterdam (5-4-1)
M. Brouwer
L. Martes
M. Young
N. Verschuren
B. Martins Indi
B. Kuipers
Robin van Cruijsen
J. Toornstra
Cedric Hatenboer
I. Babadi
M. Zonneveld
Ajax (4-3-3)
M. ter Stegen
Lucas Rosa
T. Kehrer
D. Janse
Y. Baas
J. Mokio
S. Amrabat
J. Brandt
V. Tsygankov
T. Arokodare
A. Ouazane
Player Ratings ?
Sparta Rotterdam
J. ToornstraM7.3
Robin van CruijsenM6.9
N. VerschurenD6.8
Ajax
J. BrandtM8.5
A. OuazaneF8.2
T. ArokodareF7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Ajax
Ajax rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Ajax an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ajax arrive with an impressive away record of four wins and a single draw from their last five outings, whereas Sparta Rotterdam have struggled at home with just one victory alongside two draws and two defeats in the same span. At home, Sparta Rotterdam have found the net in three of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Sparta Rotterdam face one confirmed absence ahead of the fixture, while Ajax are dealing with five certain absences and two players listed as doubtful. Ajax rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Ajax won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 14 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Sparta Rotterdam's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Sparta Rotterdam's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Ajax's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Ajax.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Ajax
Ajax's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ajax win as less likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sparta Rotterdam win
Latest market chance 16.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
14.4% → 16.0%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.2% → 18.9%
+0.7 pts
Ajax win
Latest market chance 65.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
67.5% → 65.0%
−2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sparta Rotterdam
Draw
Ajax
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sparta RotterdamAjax
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
4th
9
Games Played
9
1.00
Points/Game
2.00
1.78
Goals/Game
3.00
2.44
Conceded/Game
1.33
13.9
Shots/Game
19.8
5.1
Shots on Target
6.7
Home vs Away Context
Sparta Rotterdam at home (6 matches) vs Ajax away (6 matches)
0.83
Points/Game
2.67
1.50
Goals/Game
3.33
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
17%
Win Rate
83%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sparta Rotterdam
Home form
L
D
D
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ajax
Away form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sparta Rotterdam Wins
0
Draws
3
Ajax Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Ajax4 – 0Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam3 – 3Ajax
Ajax1 – 1Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam0 – 2Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam2 – 2Ajax
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sparta Rotterdamvs
Ajax
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.80
2.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 69.4%→Latest 69.5%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.1%→Latest 63.0%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Sparta Rotterdam's 10 matches and 1 of Ajax's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?