Nijmegen vs Groningen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadion de Goffert
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.27
Draw
3.90
Away Win
2.96
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Nijmegen
Groningen
11'
⚽ Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson (Marco Rente)
34'
⚽ Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson (Thom Van Bergen)
42'
🟨 Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
56'
🟨 David van der Werff
Clement Bischoff (Darko Nejašmić) ⚽
57'
Noe Lebreton ⚽
71'
79'
🟨 Hans Hateboer
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
22
Total Shots
9
9
Shots on Goal
3
11
Corner Kicks
2
9
Fouls
13
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Nijmegen (3-4-2-1)
G. Crettaz
P. Schuurs
A. Kaplan
Deveron Fonville
Kevin Kers
D. Nejašmić
Jamiro Monteiro
Clement Bischoff
T. Chery
N. Lebreton
B. Linssen
Groningen (4-2-3-1)
E. Vaessen
H. Hateboer
T. Blokzijl
M. Rente
M. Csinger
T. de Jonge
P. Clement
J. Schreuders
T. van Bergen
D. van der Werff
B. Willumsson
Player Ratings ?
Nijmegen
N. LebretonM8.0
D. NejašmićM7.7
Clement BischoffM7.6
Groningen
B. WillumssonF8.7
M. RenteD7.2
E. VaessenG7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Nijmegen edge defence, Groningen edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Groningen stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Groningen stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nijmegen stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Groningen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Groningen have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Nijmegen remain winless at home with three draws and two losses in that same span. Nijmegen have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during this period. There are availability concerns for Nijmegen with three players out and two doubtful, whereas Groningen face slightly fewer issues with two absences and one player in doubt. Groningen rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while Nijmegen rate stronger on defence. Groningen won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 10 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Nijmegen's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Nijmegen's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points, while Groningen's implied win probability has risen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Nijmegen points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Nijmegen
Nijmegen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Nijmegen win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nijmegen win
Latest market chance 42.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
45.5% → 42.9%
−2.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 24.6%
±0.0 pts
Groningen win
Latest market chance 32.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.9% → 32.5%
+2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Nijmegen
Draw
Groningen
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NijmegenGroningen
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
8th
9
Games Played
9
1.11
Points/Game
1.56
1.67
Goals/Game
2.44
1.78
Conceded/Game
2.11
16.3
Shots/Game
14.3
4.6
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away Context
Nijmegen at home (6 matches) vs Groningen away (6 matches)
0.67
Points/Game
1.33
1.50
Goals/Game
2.67
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.33
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nijmegen
Home form
L
L
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Groningen
Away form
L
W
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nijmegen Wins
3
Draws
0
Groningen Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Groningen2 – 1Nijmegen
Nijmegen2 – 0Groningen
Groningen2 – 1Nijmegen
Nijmegen6 – 0Groningen
Groningen0 – 1Nijmegen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nijmegenvs
Groningen
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.70
Goals conceded / game
2.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.8%→Latest 67.0%+4.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.5%→Latest 67.8%+3.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Nijmegen's 10 matches and 1 of Groningen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?