Heerenveen vs Nijmegen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 17:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.10
Draw
3.98
Away Win
3.22
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Heerenveen
Nijmegen
32'
🟨 Clement Bischoff
Oliver Johansen Braude 🟨
32'
34'
🟨 Bryan Linssen
Vasilios Zagaritis 🟨
43'
marcus linday 🟨
61'
Dylan Vente (Levi Smans) ⚽
66'
85'
🟨 Ayodele Thomas
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
8
Total Shots
21
2
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
7
7
Fouls
7
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Heerenveen (4-2-3-1)
B. Klaverboer
O. Braude
S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
M. Linday
N. Courtens
J. Trenskow
L. Smans
M. Rivera
D. Vente
Nijmegen (3-1-4-2)
G. Crettaz
T. Storm
P. Schuurs
A. Kaplan
D. Nejašmić
Kevin Kers
N. Lebreton
Jamiro Monteiro
Clement Bischoff
T. Chery
B. Linssen
Player Ratings ?
Heerenveen
D. VenteF7.7
L. SmansM7.3
J. TrenskowM7.2
Nijmegen
A. KaplanD7.2
N. LebretonM7.1
T. StormD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Heerenveen edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Heerenveen stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Heerenveen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Heerenveen stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Heerenveen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Heerenveen and Nijmegen have both recorded two wins, a draw, and two defeats in their respective last five matches, with Heerenveen playing at home while Nijmegen has been away. At home, Heerenveen have scored in three of their last five matches but also kept three clean sheets over the same period. Heerenveen face one doubtful player, whereas Nijmegen have three players out and two others in doubt ahead of the Eredivisie fixture. Heerenveen rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 22 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Heerenveen's implied win probability has fallen by 5.3 percentage points, while Nijmegen's implied win probability has risen by 4.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Heerenveen
Heerenveen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Heerenveen win as less likely than it did 10 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Heerenveen win
Latest market chance 45.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
51.2% → 45.9%
−5.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.0% → 23.4%
+0.4 pts
Nijmegen win
Latest market chance 30.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
25.9% → 30.7%
+4.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Heerenveen
Draw
Nijmegen
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HeerenveenNijmegen
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
12th
10
Games Played
10
1.50
Points/Game
1.10
1.80
Goals/Game
1.70
1.30
Conceded/Game
1.80
15.0
Shots/Game
16.3
5.8
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Heerenveen at home (7 matches) vs Nijmegen away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.67
1.86
Goals/Game
1.83
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.50
57%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Heerenveen
Home form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nijmegen
Away form
L
W
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Heerenveen Wins
2
Draws
1
Nijmegen Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Nijmegen2 – 2Heerenveen
Heerenveen3 – 2Nijmegen
Heerenveen1 – 0Nijmegen
Nijmegen3 – 0Heerenveen
Nijmegen2 – 0Heerenveen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Heerenveenvs
Nijmegen
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.5%→Latest 68.5%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.3%→Latest 69.1%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?