Heerenveen vs Excelsior Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
4.15
Away Win
5.00
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Heerenveen
Excelsior
Dylan Vente ⚽ (P)
11'
43'
🟨 Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
Oliver Johansen Braude (Jacob Trenskow) ⚽
54'
Luca Oyen (Ringo Meerveld) ⚽
84'
Jacob Trenskow ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
14
Total Shots
5
7
Shots on Goal
1
4
Corner Kicks
1
9
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Heerenveen (4-2-3-1)
B. Klaverboer
O. Braude
S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
M. Linday
N. Courtens
J. Trenskow
L. Smans
M. Rivera
D. Vente
Excelsior (4-3-3)
S. van Gassel
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
C. Widell
J. Plug
S. Janssen
I. Yegoian
R. Meissen
L. Hartjes
A. Sliti
D. Garden
Á. Þorsteinsson
Player Ratings ?
Heerenveen
J. TrenskowM9.0
O. BraudeD8.6
M. WillemsenD7.7
Excelsior
Mario DomínguezF6.5
L. HartjesM6.5
D. GardenF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Heerenveen edge defence and head-to-head, Excelsior edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Excelsior slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Heerenveen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Heerenveen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Excelsior arrive with a solid away record of three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Heerenveen have managed just one win alongside two draws and two defeats in the same span at home. At home, Heerenveen have scored in only two of their last five matches but have kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Heerenveen face a single confirmed absence ahead of the match, whereas Excelsior carry one player listed as doubtful for selection. Excelsior rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Heerenveen rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Heerenveen won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 7 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Excelsior's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Heerenveen's implied win probability has risen by 2.7 percentage points, while Excelsior's implied win probability has fallen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Excelsior
Excelsior's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Excelsior win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Heerenveen remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Heerenveen win
Latest market chance 56.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
53.4% → 56.1%
+2.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 23.7%
+0.3 pts
Excelsior win
Latest market chance 20.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
23.2% → 20.2%
−3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Heerenveen
Draw
Excelsior
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HeerenveenExcelsior
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
9th
8
Games Played
8
1.13
Points/Game
1.38
1.38
Goals/Game
2.00
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.75
15.0
Shots/Game
10.0
5.8
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Heerenveen at home (7 matches) vs Excelsior away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.33
1.86
Goals/Game
1.83
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.50
57%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Heerenveen
Home form
D
W
L
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Excelsior
Away form
W
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Heerenveen Wins
2
Draws
1
Excelsior Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Excelsior1 – 2Heerenveen
Heerenveen2 – 1Excelsior
Excelsior3 – 0Heerenveen
Heerenveen0 – 3Excelsior
Heerenveen0 – 0Excelsior
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Heerenveenvs
Excelsior
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.0%→Latest 65.1%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.0%→Latest 64.2%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Heerenveen's 10 matches and 2 of Excelsior's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?