Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 15:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.79
Draw
4.30
Away Win
4.17
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Jacob Ondrejka (Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson) ⚽
1'
Tika de Jonge 🟨
5'
15'
⚽ Cedric Hatenboer (Marvin Young)
25'
⚽ Milan Zonneveld
Thom Van Bergen (Hans Hateboer) ⚽
29'
36'
🟨 Bruno Martins Indi
61'
🟨 Lushendry Martes
75'
🟨 Cedric Hatenboer
85'
⚽ Andrej Kostić
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
20
Total Shots
8
10
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
7
8
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Groningen (4-3-3)
E. Vaessen
H. Hateboer
T. Blokzijl
M. Rente
M. Csinger
T. de Jonge
T. van Bergen
P. Clement
J. Schreuders
B. Willumsson
J. Ondrejka
Sparta Rotterdam (5-4-1)
M. Brouwer
L. Martes
M. Young
N. Verschuren
B. Martins Indi
B. Kuipers
M. van Bergen
J. Toornstra
Cedric Hatenboer
I. Babadi
M. Zonneveld
Player Ratings ?
Groningen
J. OndrejkaF8.2
T. van BergenM7.7
B. WillumssonF7.2
Sparta Rotterdam
M. ZonneveldF8.0
Andrej KostićNone7.6
M. BrouwerG7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Groningen edge recent form, attack and defence, Sparta Rotterdam edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Groningen stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Groningen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Groningen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sparta Rotterdam stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Groningen have recorded two victories from their last five home outings, whereas Sparta Rotterdam have managed just a single win across their last five away fixtures. Groningen have scored in every one of their last five home matches but have kept only a solitary clean sheet during that same period. The hosts face two confirmed absences and one doubtful player, while Sparta Rotterdam will be without just one squad member. Groningen rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Sparta Rotterdam rate stronger on head-to-head. Sparta Rotterdam won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 31 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Groningen's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Groningen's implied win probability has fallen by 5.9 percentage points, while Sparta Rotterdam's implied win probability has risen by 4.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Groningen
Groningen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Groningen win as less likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Groningen win
Latest market chance 54.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
59.9% → 54.0%
−5.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
21.1% → 22.5%
+1.4 pts
Sparta Rotterdam win
Latest market chance 23.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
19.0% → 23.6%
+4.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Groningen
Draw
Sparta Rotterdam
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GroningenSparta Rotterdam
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
14th
10
Games Played
10
1.50
Points/Game
0.90
2.40
Goals/Game
1.70
2.10
Conceded/Game
2.40
14.3
Shots/Game
13.9
5.8
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Groningen at home (6 matches) vs Sparta Rotterdam away (6 matches)
1.17
Points/Game
1.17
2.17
Goals/Game
2.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
2.50
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Groningen
Home form
W
L
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sparta Rotterdam
Away form
L
W
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Groningen Wins
1
Draws
0
Sparta Rotterdam Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.2
Sparta Rotterdam2 – 0Groningen
Groningen0 – 2Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam1 – 0Groningen
Groningen1 – 0Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen0 – 5Sparta Rotterdam
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Groningenvs
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.10
Goals conceded / game
2.40
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.4%→Latest 66.0%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.6%→Latest 64.5%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?