Excelsior vs Twente Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
6.19
Draw
4.73
Away Win
1.51
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 9
Match Events ?
Excelsior
Twente
Nesto groen 🟥
5'
12'
⚽ Wout Weghorst (Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter)
17'
🟨 Wout Weghorst
32'
⚽ Wout Weghorst (Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter)
33'
⚽ Wout Weghorst (Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter)
39'
⚽ Thomas Van den Belt
Lennard Hartjes 🟨
43'
45+1'
⚽ Daan Rots (Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter)
49'
⚽ Jordy Bawuah (Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter)
62'
⚽ (P) Wout Weghorst
71'
⚽ (P) Ramiz Zerrouki
82'
⚽ Daan Rots (Thomas Van den Belt)
Match Statistics ?
20%
Ball Possession
80%
0
Total Shots
28
0
Shots on Goal
15
0
Corner Kicks
8
7
Fouls
6
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
6
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Excelsior (4-3-3)
S. van Gassel
R. Meissen
C. Widell
J. Plug
K. Bos
D. van Vianen
N. Naujoks
L. Hartjes
A. Sliti
N. Groen
I. Yegoian
Twente (4-3-3)
J. Drommel
B. van Rooij
R. Pröpper
R. Nijstad
A. Adelgaard
R. Zerrouki
Y. Taha
T. van den Belt
D. Rots
W. Weghorst
S. Ørjasæter
Player Ratings ?
Excelsior
S. van GasselG6.9
A. SlitiF6.5
Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraF6.4
Twente
W. WeghorstF9.8
D. RotsF9.3
S. ØrjasæterF9.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Twente
Twente rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Twente a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Twente stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Twente stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Twente stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Twente slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Twente have secured two wins from their last five away outings, whereas Excelsior have endured three defeats across their most recent five home fixtures spanning multiple seasons. Excelsior have scored in all five of their last home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run. Twente face availability concerns with three players out and two listed as doubtful for the match. Twente rate stronger on form, attack and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 24 January 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Excelsior's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Twente's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Twente a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Twente
Twente's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Twente win as more likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Excelsior win
Latest market chance 16.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
18.1% → 16.6%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.7% → 20.4%
−0.3 pts
Twente win
Latest market chance 63.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
61.2% → 63.0%
+1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Excelsior
Draw
Twente
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ExcelsiorTwente
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
4th
10
Games Played
10
1.10
Points/Game
2.00
1.60
Goals/Game
1.90
1.90
Conceded/Game
1.00
10.0
Shots/Game
21.2
3.3
Shots on Target
7.4
Home vs Away Context
Excelsior at home (6 matches) vs Twente away (6 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.83
0.83
Goals/Game
3.00
3.33
Conceded/Game
0.83
17%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Excelsior
Home form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Twente
Away form
L
W
D
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Excelsior Wins
1
Draws
2
Twente Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Twente0 – 0Excelsior
Excelsior1 – 0Twente
Excelsior0 – 3Twente
Twente4 – 2Excelsior
Excelsior0 – 0Twente
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Excelsiorvs
Twente
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.00
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.0%→Latest 64.5%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 59.7%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?