AZ Alkmaar vs Twente Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.14
Draw
4.01
Away Win
3.10
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
Ro Zangelo Daal 🟨
4'
Elijah Dijkstra 🟨
19'
43'
🟨 Robin Propper
50'
🟨 Daouda Weidmann
Ayoub Oufkir 🟨
70'
84'
⚽ Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter (Younes Taha El Idrissi)
88'
🟥 Daouda Weidmann
90+3'
⚽ Lucas hesselink of vennegoor (Joel Drommel)
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
13
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
6
17
Fouls
16
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1)
J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra
L. Schouten
W. Hoedt
M. Chávez
D. Kwakman
P. Koopmeiners
Weslley Patati
V. Byskov
R. Daal
M. Meerdink
Twente (4-2-3-1)
J. Drommel
B. van Rooij
R. Pröpper
R. Nijstad
A. Adelgaard
R. Zerrouki
D. Weidmann
D. Rots
Y. Taha
S. Ørjasæter
W. Weghorst
Player Ratings ?
AZ Alkmaar
Weslley PatatiM7.2
W. HoedtD6.9
L. SchoutenD6.9
Twente
J. DrommelG8.4
S. ØrjasæterM8.2
Y. TahaM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. AZ Alkmaar edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
AZ Alkmaar slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar boast an encouraging recent record at home with three wins from their last five outings, while Twente have struggled away with just one win and two draws in their last five matches. The hosts have scored in all of their last five home fixtures but have only kept two clean sheets during that same period. AZ Alkmaar face some selection concerns with three players out and one doubtful, whereas Twente will be without four of their squad members. AZ Alkmaar rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and attack. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, AZ Alkmaar's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Twente's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
AZ Alkmaar unbeaten run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Twente
Twente's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Twente win as less likely than it did 11 days ago. AZ Alkmaar remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AZ Alkmaar win
Latest market chance 44.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
41.5% → 44.0%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.8% → 24.8%
±0.0 pts
Twente win
Latest market chance 31.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
33.7% → 31.1%
−2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
AZ Alkmaar
Draw
Twente
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AZ AlkmaarTwente
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
5th
9
Games Played
9
2.22
Points/Game
1.89
2.22
Goals/Game
1.89
1.11
Conceded/Game
1.11
17.2
Shots/Game
21.2
6.2
Shots on Target
7.4
Home vs Away Context
AZ Alkmaar at home (6 matches) vs Twente away (6 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
1.83
2.17
Goals/Game
3.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.83
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home form
D
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Twente
Away form
L
L
W
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AZ Alkmaar Wins
3
Draws
1
Twente Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
AZ Alkmaar2 – 2Twente
Twente1 – 0AZ Alkmaar
Twente2 – 3AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar1 – 0Twente
AZ Alkmaar2 – 1Twente
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AZ Alkmaarvs
Twente
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.8%→Latest 65.2%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.8%→Latest 65.7%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of AZ Alkmaar's 10 matches and 1 of Twente's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?