AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 15:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.53
Draw
4.77
Away Win
5.57
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 3
Match Events ?
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
2'
⚽ Jacob Ondrejka
Mexx Meerdink (Ro Zangelo Daal) ⚽
9'
47'
⚽ Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson (Jacob Ondrejka)
54'
⚽ Thom Van Bergen
58'
🟨 Marco Rente
Mexx Meerdink •
59'
61'
🟨 Pelle Clement
Ayoub Oufkir (Mexx Meerdink) ⚽
61'
Mateo Chávez ⚽
76'
85'
🟨 Etienne Vaessen
88'
🟥 Etienne Vaessen
Mexx Meerdink ⚽ (P)
90+1'
Peer Koopmeiners 🟨
90+5'
90+10'
🟥 Hans Hateboer
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
19
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
5
7
Corner Kicks
0
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
2
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1)
J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra
W. Goes
W. Hoedt
M. Chávez
D. Kwakman
P. Koopmeiners
A. Oufkir
V. Byskov
R. Daal
M. Meerdink
Groningen (4-2-3-1)
E. Vaessen
H. Hateboer
T. Blokzijl
M. Rente
M. Csinger
T. de Jonge
P. Clement
J. Schreuders
B. Willumsson
J. Ondrejka
T. van Bergen
Player Ratings ?
AZ Alkmaar
M. MeerdinkF9.0
A. OufkirM8.0
R. DaalM7.2
Groningen
J. OndrejkaM7.9
T. van BergenF7.5
B. WillumssonM7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. AZ Alkmaar edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, Groningen edge attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Groningen stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Groningen have secured two wins from their last five away fixtures, while AZ Alkmaar boast three victories in their corresponding home sample. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five outings at this venue, yet they have also kept two clean sheets within that same recent run. AZ Alkmaar rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Groningen rate stronger on attack. Groningen won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 22 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to AZ Alkmaar's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 11-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 11 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AZ Alkmaar win
Latest market chance 61.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
61.9% → 61.9%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.2% → 20.7%
+0.5 pts
Groningen win
Latest market chance 17.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.9% → 17.4%
−0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
AZ Alkmaar
Draw
Groningen
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AZ AlkmaarGroningen
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
9th
11
Games Played
11
1.82
Points/Game
1.36
1.82
Goals/Game
2.36
1.18
Conceded/Game
2.18
17.2
Shots/Game
14.3
6.2
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away Context
AZ Alkmaar at home (6 matches) vs Groningen away (6 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
1.33
2.17
Goals/Game
2.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.33
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home form
W
W
D
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Groningen
Away form
W
L
D
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AZ Alkmaar Wins
3
Draws
1
Groningen Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Groningen3 – 0AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar4 – 1Groningen
AZ Alkmaar3 – 0Groningen
Groningen0 – 0AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar1 – 0Groningen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AZ Alkmaarvs
Groningen
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 69.5%→Latest 67.7%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.7%→Latest 62.9%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?