Ajax vs Nijmegen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Johan Cruijff Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.31
Draw
6.21
Away Win
7.80
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Ajax
Nijmegen
Tolu Arokodare (Jorthy Mokio) ⚽
7'
Jorthy Mokio 🟨
17'
19'
⚽ (P) Tjaronn Chery
33'
🟨 Bryan Linssen
54'
🟨 Gabriel·Bras
Abdellah Ouazane 🟨
67'
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
18
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
4
8
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
5
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Ajax (4-3-3)
M. ter Stegen
Lucas Rosa
T. Kehrer
Y. Baas
O. Wijndal
J. Mokio
S. Amrabat
J. Brandt
V. Tsygankov
T. Arokodare
O. Gloukh
Nijmegen (3-4-2-1)
G. Crettaz
Gabriel Brás
P. Schuurs
Deveron Fonville
T. Storm
D. Nejašmić
N. Lebreton
Kevin Kers
T. Chery
D. Tadić
B. Linssen
Player Ratings ?
Ajax
T. ArokodareF7.9
J. BrandtM7.2
S. AdingraF7.1
Nijmegen
G. CrettazG7.5
T. CheryM6.8
P. SchuursD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ajax edge recent form, attack and defence, Nijmegen edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ajax slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nijmegen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nijmegen have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Ajax have managed just one win alongside three draws in their corresponding home fixtures over the same span. Ajax have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that identical run. Four Ajax players are unavailable with one more doubtful, whereas Nijmegen face five confirmed absences and two further doubts ahead of the clash. Ajax rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Nijmegen hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Ajax's implied win probability has risen by 9.6 percentage points, while Nijmegen's implied win probability has fallen by 5.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Ajax
Ajax's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ajax win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ajax win
Latest market chance 72.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
69.5% → 72.3%
+2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.2% → 16.6%
−0.6 pts
Nijmegen win
Latest market chance 11.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
13.3% → 11.1%
−2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ajax
Draw
Nijmegen
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AjaxNijmegen
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
11th
7
Games Played
7
2.00
Points/Game
1.14
3.00
Goals/Game
1.71
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.86
19.8
Shots/Game
16.3
6.7
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Ajax at home (6 matches) vs Nijmegen away (6 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.67
2.00
Goals/Game
1.83
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
33%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ajax
Home form
D
D
L
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nijmegen
Away form
D
L
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ajax Wins
1
Draws
3
Nijmegen Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
Ajax1 – 1Nijmegen
Nijmegen2 – 2Ajax
Ajax0 – 3Nijmegen
Nijmegen1 – 2Ajax
Ajax2 – 2Nijmegen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ajaxvs
Nijmegen
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 71.2%→Latest 71.7%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.0%→Latest 60.7%−5.3 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Ajax's 10 matches and 3 of Nijmegen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?