Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Ajax will look to improve upon a mixed home record of just one win and three draws from their last five outings, while AZ Alkmaar arrive with an encouraging away run featuring three victories and only a single defeat in the same span. The home side have found the net in every one of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical run. Both squads carry significant injury concerns ahead of kickoff, with Ajax facing five confirmed absences alongside one doubtful player while AZ Alkmaar have four confirmed out and one doubtful. Ajax rate stronger on form and attack, while AZ Alkmaar rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 8 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Ajax's implied win probability has risen by 6.8 percentage points, while AZ Alkmaar's implied win probability has fallen by 4.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.