Wrexham vs Middlesbrough Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Racecourse Ground
Wed 04 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.27
Draw
4.25
Away Win
1.76
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
George Dobson 🟨
62'
George Thomason (Kieffer Moore) ⚽
70'
Oliver Rathbone (Lewis O'Brien) ⚽
84'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
15
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
2
9
Fouls
6
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Wrexham (3-5-1-1)
A. Patterson
M. Cleworth
J. Worrall
C. Doyle
I. Kaboré
G. Dobson
B. Whiteman
G. Thomason
J. Ekomié
L. O'Brien
K. Moore
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1)
R. Vítek
L. Ayling
A. Phillips
A. Malanda
C. Brittain
A. Morris
S. Berhalter
Neto Borges
A. Cozier-Duberry
T. Conway
K. Joseph
Player Ratings ?
Wrexham
G. ThomasonM8.2
K. MooreF7.7
L. O'BrienM7.7
Middlesbrough
A. MorrisM7.0
M. ArfstenD6.8
A. Cozier-DuberryM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Middlesbrough a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough arrive with an impressive away record of three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Wrexham have secured just two victories and suffered two defeats at home in the same span. Wrexham have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that period. Both squads carry injury concerns, with Wrexham having three players out and one doubtful against Middlesbrough's single absence and one doubt. Middlesbrough rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 2 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Wrexham's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points, while Middlesbrough's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Middlesbrough a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Middlesbrough win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Wrexham win
Latest market chance 21.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.0% → 21.6%
−2.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.7% → 23.0%
−1.7 pts
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 55.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
51.3% → 55.4%
+4.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Wrexham
Draw
Middlesbrough
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WrexhamMiddlesbrough
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
2nd
13
Games Played
13
1.08
Points/Game
2.15
1.15
Goals/Game
2.31
1.46
Conceded/Game
1.31
12.0
Shots/Game
19.1
3.4
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Wrexham at home (8 matches) vs Middlesbrough away (8 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.50
1.62
Goals/Game
1.62
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.25
38%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Wrexham
Home form
L
D
W
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Middlesbrough
Away form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Wrexham Wins
0
Draws
2
Middlesbrough Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Wrexham2 – 2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough1 – 1Wrexham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Wrexhamvs
Middlesbrough
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 59.9%+3.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 58.7%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?