Wolves vs Watford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Molineux Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.38
Draw
5.07
Away Win
7.98
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Wolves
Watford
Adam Armstrong ⚽
35'
Kieran Trippier 🟨
41'
41'
🟨 Iker Bravo
49'
🟨 Hector Kyprianou
74'
🟨 Jordan Zemura
Thomas Doyle 🟨
79'
Hugo Bueno 🟨
87'
José Sá 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
24
Total Shots
4
3
Shots on Goal
0
14
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Wolves (4-2-3-1)
José Sá
K. Trippier
Y. Mosquera
L. Krejčí
Hugo Bueno
André
M. Munetsi
J. Bellegarde
J. James
R. Saïd
A. Armstrong
Watford (5-3-2)
F. Ravaglia
M. Bola
K. Keben
M. Pollock
Branimir Mlačić
K. Diatta
E. Kayembe
H. Kyprianou
Iker Bravo
M. Boadu
L. Kjerrumgaard
Player Ratings ?
Wolves
A. ArmstrongF8.0
Y. MosqueraD7.5
J. BellegardeM7.2
Watford
K. DiattaD6.8
R. VataF6.7
O. MaammaF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Wolves
Wolves rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Wolves an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Wolves stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Wolves stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Wolves stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Wolves stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Wolves have secured two victories and drawn twice in their last five home outings, while Watford remain winless from four defeats and a solitary draw across their away fixtures during the same period. The hosts have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have kept just one clean sheet in that identical sample. Wolves face significant selection issues with three players out and three more doubtful, whereas Watford have no confirmed absences despite having five players listed as doubtful. Wolves rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Wolves won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 10 March 2022, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Watford's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Wolves's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Watford's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Wolves.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Watford losing run
1
Watford points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Wolves
Wolves's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Wolves win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Wolves win
Latest market chance 69.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
68.5% → 69.5%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.1% → 18.7%
−0.4 pts
Watford win
Latest market chance 11.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
12.4% → 11.7%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Wolves
Draw
Watford
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WolvesWatford
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
20th
11
Games Played
11
1.64
Points/Game
1.00
1.73
Goals/Game
0.91
1.45
Conceded/Game
1.73
16.9
Shots/Game
12.1
4.5
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Wolves at home (8 matches) vs Watford away (7 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
0.14
1.75
Goals/Game
0.57
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Wolves
Home form
W
D
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Watford
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Wolves Wins
4
Draws
0
Watford Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Wolves4 – 0Watford
Watford0 – 2Wolves
Watford2 – 1Wolves
Wolves2 – 0Watford
Watford1 – 2Wolves
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Wolvesvs
Watford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.3%→Latest 58.8%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 50.3%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?