West Brom vs Birmingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Hawthorns
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.56
Draw
3.34
Away Win
2.92
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
West Brom
Birmingham
Rabby Nzingoula 🟨
8'
31'
🟨 Alex Cochrane
41'
⚽ (P) August Priske
75'
🟨 Carlos Vicente
79'
🟨 Jay Stansfield
J. Morgan 🟨
89'
89'
🟨 Bright Osayi-Samuel
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
14
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
7
7
Corner Kicks
9
8
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
West Brom (4-4-2)
M. O’Leary
B. Pereira
N. Phillips
C. Mepham
C. Styles
R. Nzingoula
O. Diakité
F. Myhre
Tobias Christopher Collyer
A. Heggebø
J. Morgan
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
Carlos Vicente
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
A. Priske
Player Ratings ?
West Brom
M. O’LearyG8.1
N. PhillipsD7.4
C. MephamD7.0
Birmingham
P. NeumannD7.7
L. MillarM7.2
C. KlarerD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. West Brom edge defence, Birmingham edge attack, recent form and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
West Brom stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
West Brom remain unbeaten in their last five home outings with two wins and three draws, while Birmingham have secured just two victories from five away fixtures. The Iron have scored in four of their last five home matches but have only kept two clean sheets during that same period. West Brom face some concerns with two players unavailable, whereas Birmingham must manage a significant absence list with five players out for selection. Birmingham rate stronger on attack, while West Brom rate stronger on defence, while form and head-to-head are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 10 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, West Brom's implied win probability has fallen by 4.0 percentage points, while Birmingham's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from West Brom
West Brom's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a West Brom win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
West Brom win
Latest market chance 37.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
41.3% → 37.9%
−3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.5% → 28.9%
+1.4 pts
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 33.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
31.2% → 33.2%
+2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
West Brom
Draw
Birmingham
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
West BromBirmingham
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
11th
8
Games Played
8
1.75
Points/Game
1.38
1.25
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.38
12.9
Shots/Game
14.3
3.9
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
West Brom at home (8 matches) vs Birmingham away (7 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
1.86
1.62
Goals/Game
1.29
0.88
Conceded/Game
0.86
50%
Win Rate
57%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
West Brom
Home form
D
W
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Birmingham
Away form
D
D
W
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
West Brom Wins
1
Draws
2
Birmingham Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Birmingham0 – 0West Brom
West Brom1 – 1Birmingham
West Brom1 – 0Birmingham
Birmingham3 – 1West Brom
Birmingham2 – 0West Brom
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
West Bromvs
Birmingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 46.9%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 52.8%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of West Brom's 10 matches and 2 of Birmingham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?