Watford vs Middlesbrough Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vicarage Road
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.41
Draw
4.63
Away Win
1.56
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Watford
Middlesbrough
21'
🟨 Callum Brittain
43'
🟨 Sam Byram
59'
🟨 Sebastian Berhalter
Haktab Omar Traore 🟨
71'
Match Statistics ?
26%
Ball Possession
74%
8
Total Shots
18
1
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
6
12
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Watford (5-3-2)
F. Ravaglia
K. Diatta
K. Keben
M. Pollock
Branimir Mlačić
J. Zemura
E. Kayembe
M. Payero
Iker Bravo
Amin Nabizada
M. Doumbia
Middlesbrough (4-3-3)
R. Vítek
C. Brittain
A. Phillips
A. Malanda
S. Byram
R. McGree
A. Morris
S. Berhalter
A. Cozier-Duberry
D. Strelec
J. Sarmiento
Player Ratings ?
Watford
M. PollockD7.0
F. RavagliaG7.0
Iker BravoM6.9
Middlesbrough
M. Peart-HarrisM7.4
A. MorrisM7.2
J. SarmientoF7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Watford edge head-to-head, giving Middlesbrough a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Watford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough boast an encouraging recent record on the road with three wins and a single draw from their last five away outings, whereas Watford have secured just three victories from their corresponding five home fixtures. At home, the Hornets have found the net in four of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Middlesbrough rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Watford rate stronger on head-to-head. Middlesbrough won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Watford's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Watford's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Middlesbrough's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Middlesbrough a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Middlesbrough win as less likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Watford win
Latest market chance 18.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
16.5% → 18.1%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.6% → 20.8%
+0.2 pts
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 61.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
62.9% → 61.1%
−1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Watford
Draw
Middlesbrough
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WatfordMiddlesbrough
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
2nd
14
Games Played
14
1.00
Points/Game
2.00
0.93
Goals/Game
2.14
1.64
Conceded/Game
1.36
12.1
Shots/Game
19.1
3.7
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Watford at home (8 matches) vs Middlesbrough away (8 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
1.50
1.12
Goals/Game
1.62
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.25
50%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Watford
Home form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Middlesbrough
Away form
W
D
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Watford Wins
3
Draws
0
Middlesbrough Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
Middlesbrough5 – 1Watford
Watford3 – 0Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0 – 1Watford
Watford2 – 1Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough3 – 1Watford
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Watfordvs
Middlesbrough
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.1%→Latest 63.6%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.7%→Latest 60.1%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?