Watford vs Lincoln Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vicarage Road
Tue 03 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.58
Draw
3.55
Away Win
2.73
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Watford
Lincoln
Stephy Mavididi (Myron Boadu) ⚽
46'
47'
🟨 Ben House
Stephy Mavididi 🟨
50'
Kevin Keben 🟨
56'
Branimir Mlacic 🟨
80'
Edo Kayembe 🟨
88'
88'
🟨 Sonny Bradley
Hector Kyprianou 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
18
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
1
7
Corner Kicks
6
17
Fouls
10
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Watford (4-2-3-1)
F. Ravaglia
O. Traoré
M. Pollock
K. Keben
M. Bola
E. Kayembe
H. Kyprianou
O. Maamma
Iker Bravo
S. Mavididi
M. Boadu
Lincoln (3-4-2-1)
G. Wickens
D. Elerewe
S. Bradley
A. Coubiș
D. Oyegoke
Y. Konak
T. Bayliss
C. Elder
C. Ogbene
B. House
F. Draper
Player Ratings ?
Watford
S. MavididiM7.9
F. RavagliaG7.5
M. BolaD7.3
Lincoln
A. CoubișD6.8
T. BaylissM6.7
C. ElderM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lincoln edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lincoln stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Lincoln slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Lincoln arrive with an encouraging record of three wins and a single draw from their last five away fixtures, whereas Watford have secured just two victories in that same span at home. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue but have managed only one clean sheet within that same period. Watford carry five players out of contention, while Lincoln have three unavailable ahead of the contest. Lincoln rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. Over the 4-day comparison window, Watford's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Lincoln's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Watford
Watford's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Watford win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Watford win
Latest market chance 38.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
40.7% → 38.5%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.0% → 27.9%
+0.9 pts
Lincoln win
Latest market chance 33.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
32.2% → 33.6%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Watford
Draw
Lincoln
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WatfordLincoln
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
16th
13
Games Played
13
0.85
Points/Game
1.15
0.92
Goals/Game
1.08
1.77
Conceded/Game
1.77
12.1
Shots/Game
12.3
3.7
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Watford at home (8 matches) vs Lincoln away (8 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
1.25
1.12
Goals/Game
0.88
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.25
50%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Watford
Home form
D
W
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lincoln
Away form
W
W
W
L
D
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Watford and Lincoln.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Watfordvs
Lincoln
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.10
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 50.3%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 55.4%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?