Swansea vs Norwich Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.25
Draw
3.57
Away Win
3.25
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Swansea
Norwich
Jay Fulton 🟨
22'
28'
⚽ Jacob Wright (Oscar Schwartau)
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo (Josh Tymon) ⚽
49'
58'
🟨 Pelle Mattsson
Adam Idah (melker widell) ⚽
59'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
12
Total Shots
12
8
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
2
10
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
6
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Swansea (4-3-3)
L. Vigouroux
F. Lissah
B. Cabango
S. Welsh
J. Tymon
Gonçalo Franco
J. Fulton
M. Widell
M. Yeo
A. Idah
Joseph Okopu
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
V. Kovačević
J. Stacey
Ruairi McConville
J. Córdoba
D. Yongwa
Jacob Wright
P. Mattsson
A. Brooks
P. Maghoma
O. Schwartau
M. Kvistgaarden
Player Ratings ?
Swansea
M. YeoF8.2
A. IdahF8.1
M. WidellM7.2
Norwich
Jacob WrightM7.5
V. KovačevićG7.4
S. FieldM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Swansea
Swansea rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Swansea a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Norwich arrive at the ground having recorded just a solitary victory in their last five away outings, while Swansea have remained unbeaten in three wins and two draws from their corresponding home sample. At home, Swansea have scored in three of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets within that same recent sequence. Swansea face availability concerns with two players out and one doubtful, whereas Norwich have four confirmed absentees but no doubts to navigate. Swansea rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Swansea's implied win probability has risen by 5.2 percentage points, while Norwich's implied win probability has fallen by 5.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Swansea a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Swansea yellow cards after 75'
3
Norwich points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Swansea
Swansea's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Swansea win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swansea win
Latest market chance 42.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.5% → 42.4%
+5.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.8% → 27.2%
−0.6 pts
Norwich win
Latest market chance 30.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
35.7% → 30.5%
−5.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Swansea
Draw
Norwich
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SwanseaNorwich
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
17th
8
Games Played
8
2.13
Points/Game
1.13
1.62
Goals/Game
2.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
2.12
11.9
Shots/Game
14.7
4.5
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Swansea at home (7 matches) vs Norwich away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.57
Goals/Game
2.38
0.43
Conceded/Game
1.50
57%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swansea
Home form
W
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Norwich
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swansea Wins
2
Draws
2
Norwich Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
Norwich1 – 1Swansea
Swansea2 – 1Norwich
Norwich5 – 1Swansea
Swansea1 – 0Norwich
Norwich2 – 2Swansea
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swanseavs
Norwich
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
2.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 54.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 58.9%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Swansea's 10 matches and 2 of Norwich's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?