Stoke vs Middlesbrough Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
bet365 Stadium
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.40
Draw
3.94
Away Win
2.03
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Stoke
Middlesbrough
48'
⚽ Callum Brittain (Amario Cozier-Duberry)
Neto Borges ⚽ (OG)
50'
51'
🟨 Sebastian Berhalter
Luke Graham 🟨
68'
73'
⚽ will lankshear
Róbert Boženík (George Hirst) ⚽
85'
90+1'
⚽ Neto Borges
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
8
Total Shots
20
1
Shots on Goal
9
4
Corner Kicks
3
9
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
7
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Stoke (3-4-3)
V. Johansson
B. Johnson
B. Wilmot
L. Graham
J. Tchamadeu
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
E. Galbraith
E. Bocat
J. McGlynn
L. Cissé
Bae Jun-Ho
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1)
R. Vítek
L. Ayling
A. Phillips
A. Malanda
C. Brittain
S. Berhalter
A. Morris
Neto Borges
A. Cozier-Duberry
J. Sarmiento
W. Lankshear
Player Ratings ?
Stoke
R. BoženíkF7.9
B. WilmotD6.7
V. JohanssonG6.6
Middlesbrough
W. LankshearF8.1
C. BrittainM7.9
A. Cozier-DuberryM7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Middlesbrough edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, whereas Stoke City have secured three victories in that same stretch at home. The Potters have found the net in each of their last five matches at home while keeping a clean sheet on two occasions during that identical period. Stoke City face two confirmed absences while Middlesbrough have one player unavailable ahead of this Championship clash. Middlesbrough rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and attack, while defence is closely matched. Middlesbrough won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Stoke's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Stoke's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points, while Middlesbrough's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Middlesbrough win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stoke win
Latest market chance 27.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 27.1%
+0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.3% → 25.6%
+0.3 pts
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 47.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
48.3% → 47.3%
−1.0 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StokeMiddlesbrough
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
2nd
9
Games Played
9
1.78
Points/Game
2.00
1.67
Goals/Game
1.89
1.44
Conceded/Game
1.33
11.3
Shots/Game
19.1
3.6
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Stoke at home (7 matches) vs Middlesbrough away (8 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.50
1.71
Goals/Game
1.62
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.25
57%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stoke
Home form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Middlesbrough
Away form
L
L
D
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stoke Wins
1
Draws
1
Middlesbrough Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
Stoke1 – 2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0 – 0Stoke
Stoke1 – 3Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2 – 0Stoke
Stoke2 – 0Middlesbrough
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stokevs
Middlesbrough
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 55.5%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.4%→Latest 57.8%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Stoke's 10 matches and 1 of Middlesbrough's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?