Stoke vs Bristol City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
bet365 Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.29
Away Win
2.98
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Stoke
Bristol City
El Hadji Soumare 🟨
31'
43'
🟨 Luke McNally
71'
🟨 Jason Knight
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
11
Total Shots
8
1
Shots on Goal
0
5
Corner Kicks
6
7
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Stoke (3-4-3)
V. Johansson
B. Wilmot
B. Lawal
L. Graham
B. Johnson
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
E. Galbraith
L. Bombino
J. McGlynn
J. Devenny
L. Cissé
Bristol City (4-2-3-1)
B. Collins
C. Pring
G. Tanner
L. McNally
L. Eissat
J. Knight
J. Williams
Rio Cardines
D. Ballard
G. Yah
L. Tolaj
Player Ratings ?
Stoke
B. WilmotD7.1
B. LawalD7.0
L. BombinoM6.8
Bristol City
B. CollinsG7.0
L. McNallyD6.9
L. TolajF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Stoke edge recent form and attack, Bristol City edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stoke slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stoke have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Bristol City have recorded two wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures. The Potters have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have kept two clean sheets from that same run. Stoke face four confirmed absences ahead of the trip, whereas Bristol City must manage with two players out and another two listed as doubtful. Stoke rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Bristol City rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. Bristol City won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 2 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Stoke's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Stoke's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Bristol City's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Stoke
Stoke's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Stoke win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stoke win
Latest market chance 38.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
41.1% → 38.9%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.0% → 28.9%
+0.9 pts
Bristol City win
Latest market chance 32.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.9% → 32.3%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Stoke
Draw
Bristol City
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StokeBristol City
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
15th
11
Games Played
11
1.73
Points/Game
1.27
1.64
Goals/Game
1.09
1.45
Conceded/Game
1.36
11.3
Shots/Game
13.1
3.6
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Stoke at home (7 matches) vs Bristol City away (7 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.71
1.71
Goals/Game
1.71
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.57
57%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stoke
Home form
L
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bristol City
Away form
D
W
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stoke Wins
2
Draws
1
Bristol City Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Bristol City2 – 0Stoke
Stoke5 – 1Bristol City
Bristol City2 – 0Stoke
Stoke2 – 2Bristol City
Stoke4 – 0Bristol City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stokevs
Bristol City
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.5%→Latest 47.3%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 53.3%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?