Southampton vs QPR Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Mary's Stadium
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.96
Draw
3.82
Away Win
3.78
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Southampton
QPR
Kuryu Matsuki ⚽
11'
Cameron Bragg (Ryan Manning) ⚽
55'
Keven Schlotterbeck (Ryan Manning) ⚽
66'
68'
⚽ Richard Kone (Karamoko Dembélé)
72'
🟨 Jonathan Varane
83'
🟨 Kealey Adamson
86'
🟨 Jimmy Dunne
Welington ⚽
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
19
Total Shots
12
9
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
4
7
Fouls
15
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Daniel Peretz
J. Bree
J. Stephens
K. Schlotterbeck
R. Manning
Cameron Bragg
J. Ward-Prowse
K. Matsuki
F. Azaz
Léo Scienza
L. Dobbin
QPR (4-4-2)
P. Charles
K. Adamson
J. Dunne
R. Edwards
B. Kemper
K. Poku
J. Varane
G. Kamara
H. Vale
P. Smyth
R. Kone
Player Ratings ?
Southampton
Cameron BraggM8.2
R. ManningD8.2
K. SchlotterbeckD7.7
QPR
R. KoneF7.9
P. CharlesG6.7
P. SmythF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Southampton
Southampton rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Southampton a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Southampton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Southampton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Southampton have enjoyed a solid run of four wins and one draw from their last five home outings, while QPR have recorded just a single victory alongside three draws and a defeat in their away sample over the same period. The Saints have scored in four of their last five home matches but have kept two clean sheets from that identical sample size. Southampton face no confirmed absences although they carry two doubtful names, whereas QPR have five players confirmed out with no doubts attached to their squad. Southampton rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. Southampton won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 24 February 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to QPR's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Southampton's implied win probability has fallen by 4.9 percentage points, while QPR's implied win probability has risen by 3.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Southampton a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Southampton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Southampton
Southampton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Southampton win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Southampton win
Latest market chance 49.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
54.0% → 49.1%
−4.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
23.5% → 25.1%
+1.6 pts
QPR win
Latest market chance 25.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
22.4% → 25.8%
+3.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Southampton
Draw
QPR
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SouthamptonQPR
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
8th
12
Games Played
12
2.00
Points/Game
1.67
2.00
Goals/Game
1.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
15.6
Shots/Game
15.1
5.0
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Southampton at home (7 matches) vs QPR away (7 matches)
2.71
Points/Game
1.29
2.86
Goals/Game
1.14
0.71
Conceded/Game
1.57
86%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Southampton
Home form
W
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
QPR
Away form
W
D
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Southampton Wins
5
Draws
0
QPR Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
Southampton5 – 0QPR
QPR1 – 2Southampton
QPR0 – 1Southampton
Southampton2 – 1QPR
QPR0 – 1Southampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Southamptonvs
QPR
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.70
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.1%→Latest 59.8%−2.3 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.5%→Latest 61.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?