Southampton vs Bolton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Mary's Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.46
Draw
5.04
Away Win
6.16
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Southampton
Bolton
44'
🟨 Akin Famewo
Cameron Bragg 🟨
59'
76'
🟨 Lewis Brunt
83'
🟨 Thelonius Bair
Kuryu Matsuki 🟨
85'
88'
🟨 Luca Stephenson
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
14
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Goal
3
5
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
10
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Daniel Peretz
J. Bree
J. Stephens
K. Schlotterbeck
Welington
J. Ward-Prowse
Cameron Bragg
T. Fellows
F. Azaz
Léo Scienza
C. Larin
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
G. Bazunu
Luca Stephenson
E. Toal
L. Brunt
A. Famewo
J. Sheehan
X. Simons
Gaizka Larrazabal
A. Ito
T. Gale
S. Dalby
Player Ratings ?
Southampton
K. SchlotterbeckD7.4
Daniel PeretzG7.3
S. EdozieM7.2
Bolton
Ruben RodriguesF7.2
E. ErhahonM6.9
L. BruntD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Southampton edge recent form, attack and defence, Bolton edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Southampton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bolton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Southampton arrive at home with a perfect record in their last five outings, while Bolton have managed just two wins from their own set of five away matches. Southampton have scored in each of their last five home games, though they have kept only a single clean sheet during that same span. Southampton rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Bolton rate stronger on head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2005. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bolton losing run
15
Southampton points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Southampton win
Latest market chance 64.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
64.7% → 64.4%
−0.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.5% → 19.7%
+0.2 pts
Bolton win
Latest market chance 15.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.8% → 15.9%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Southampton
Draw
Bolton
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SouthamptonBolton
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
14th
10
Games Played
10
2.00
Points/Game
1.30
2.10
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.80
15.6
Shots/Game
14.1
5.0
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Southampton at home (7 matches) vs Bolton away (8 matches)
2.71
Points/Game
1.38
2.86
Goals/Game
1.38
0.71
Conceded/Game
1.75
86%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Southampton
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bolton
Away form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Southampton Wins
0
Draws
3
Bolton Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.6
Bolton1 – 1Southampton
Southampton1 – 2Bolton
Southampton1 – 2Bolton
Bolton0 – 0Southampton
Southampton0 – 0Bolton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Southamptonvs
Bolton
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.5%→Latest 65.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 60.9%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?